承認台灣主權、和平統一、維持現狀、或相互交鋒: 評估習進平、川普、及蔡英文執政下台海關係之影響及未來 趨勢

Abstract

台灣、中華人民共和國和美國在影響連動兩岸關係方向上扮演者相當重要的角色，並對台灣的未來政策發展有極大影響。過去六年中，三國都經歷了重大的領導層變革: 習近平在2013年擔任中華人民共和國最高職位、並於2018年取消任期限制，走向一人專制之政。台灣在2016年則歷經執政黨汰換，傾向台獨之民進黨在蔡英文之帶領下，正式取代了相對親中之國民黨成為執政黨。相較於美國2017年之選舉，川普在缺乏共和黨支持下，由一介政治素人搖身成為美國最高領導人。正因迄今尚無全面分析這些發展如何影響兩岸關係的平衡，本研究調查習近平，蔡英文和川普就職後兩岸關係局勢之經濟、政治和軍事轉變，並評估了這些變化如何影響未來兩岸之情勢。為此，這項研究首先概述台灣、中華人民共和國和美國之間的三角關係。而後，提出了兩岸關係中三個可能的結果以及影響其未來發展之因素。之後本研究介紹了2013年以來兩岸關係發生的重大政治，經濟和軍事變化。本研究結論為，兩岸關係未來走向將由目前僵局轉向日益惡化。不論是中國對台灣的非武力打壓迫使台灣接受和平手統一、甚或是提高武裝軍備為未來統戰預備，對中國而言，面對台灣軍武能力之相對弱勢之情況下，武力統一台灣將是決心而非威脅、且和平統一將不是可能之選項。中國決不會同意在目前情況下以台灣主權為基礎的和平協議。

Taiwan, the PRC and the United States are three players whose combined actions affect the direction of cross-strait relations. Consequently, they have a significant impact on the future of Taiwan. Over the past six years, all three went through significant leadership changes. Xi Jinping assumed the PRC top post in 2013 and saw presidential term limits removed in 2018, paving the way for his life-long rule. Taiwan in 2016 saw a switch in government where the DPP, a party that officially strives for Taiwanese independence and headed by Tsai Ing-wen, replaced the KMT, which supports eventual unification. Donald Trump won the US presidential elections of 2017. He is a man without any political experience whatsoever and who lacks firm support from his own party establishment. No research to date has comprehensively analyzed how these developments affect the balance in cross-strait relations. As such, this research investigates what economic, political and military changes have taken place in cross-strait relations since the inaugurations of Xi Jinping, Tsai Ing-wen and Donald Trump and assesses how these changes impact the future outcome of cross-strait relations. In order to do so, the research first draws an overview of the triangular relation between Taiwan, the PRC and the United States. The chapter that follows lists the main three possible outcomes of cross-strait relations and the variables that influence their likelihood. The research continues by listing the major political, economic and military changes that have occurred in cross-strait relations since 2013. The conclusion shows that the most likely future direction of cross-strait relations is a worsening of the present impasse with the PRC increasing the use of non-violent restrictive measures on Taiwan in an effort to force it to accept unification via peaceful means or provide itself an improved position in a possible future battlefield. To the PRC, this option is an alternative to military action against Taiwan absent its ability to finish such an operation successfully. Peaceful unification is unlikely in the near future and that the PRC will never agree to a peace agreement based on Taiwanese sovereignty under the current circumstances.