Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/118968
題名: 中國大陸的財政收入、城鎮化與房產價格—追蹤資料Granger因果關係之實證分析
Fiscal Revenue, Urbanization and Real Estate Price in China—Evidence from the Granger Causality Analysis Provincial Panel Data
作者: 許賀舜
Hsu, He-Shun
貢獻者: 黃智聰
Huang, Jr-Tsung
許賀舜
Hsu, He-Shun
關鍵詞: 中國大陸
財政收入
城鎮化
房產價格
Granger因果關係
China
Fiscal revenue
Urbanization
Real estate price
Granger causality
日期: 2018
上傳時間: 27-七月-2018
摘要: 中國共產黨在第十八次全國代表大會中,提出「堅持走中國特色的新型城鎮化道路」等擴大內需的經濟政策,在制訂財稅改革制度與調控房地產市場之下,以穩固國家未來的發展作好準備。本文的主要目的,是以中國大陸的地方政府財政稅收、城鎮化與房產價格為探討對象,分析中國大陸地方屬性的財政稅收、城鎮化與房產價格之間的關係與相互影響力。在透過單根檢定、共整合檢定與建立Granger因果關係的模型,精確探討1997至2017年,中國大陸31個省級行政區的財政稅收、城鎮化與房產價格之間的相互影響力。\r\n「Granger因果關係檢定」是由Granger於1969年發表並發展而來,為現今被廣泛應用的經濟實證方法。本文在實證模型的結果顯示,1997至2017年間,中國大陸地方政府的財政稅收增加對房產價格上漲有領先效果,而房產價格上漲也對財政稅收增加有領先效果;同時,房產價格上漲對城鎮化發展有領先效果。但城鎮化現象並不對財政稅收成長與房產價格上漲有領先效果。因此,中國大陸地方政府在發展城鎮化的過程中,財政稅收制度與房地產市場扮演著關鍵性角色。
During the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, it proposed the strategy of “the path of new urbanization with Chinese characteristics” to expand domestic demand. Under the formulation of the tax system and the regulation of real estate market, Chinese government is willing to stabilize the future economic development of the country. The main purpose of this study is to discuss the fiscal revenue of local governments, urbanization and real estate price in mainland China, and to analyze the relationship and mutual influence among them though the unit root test, co-integration test and the establishment of Granger causality model.\r\nGranger causality was published by Granger in 1969 and is widely used as an empirical method. The results of the study provides that in mainland China from 1997 to 2017, the increase in real estate price was led by the increase in fiscal revenue, and the increase in fiscal revenue was led by the increase in real estate price; also, the development of urbanization was led by the increase in real estate price; however, the increase in fiscal revenue and real estate price was not led by the development of urbanization. Therefore, the local tax system and real estate market play a key role in the development of urbanization in mainland China.
參考文獻: 一、中文文獻\r\n王亞芬(2015),「房地產市場波動對地方財政收入的影響研究-基於面板誤差修正模型的區域差異性分析」。《財政研究》(北京),第2期,頁64-69。\r\n王睿(2008),房地產稅收政策調控房價影響效果評析(碩士論文)。復旦大學,上海市。\r\n朱家亮(2014),「城鎮化進程與財政相互關係的實證研究」。《城市發展研究》(北京),第21卷第9期,頁5-11。\r\n段宗志、程希瑩、陳莉(2015),「地方財政收入對城鎮化水平的影響研究」。《華東經濟管理》(合肥),第29卷第3期,頁67-70。\r\n段國旭(2009),「城鎮化進程的財政動力研究-兼論城鎮化率與財政收入占GDP比重的關係」。《財政研究》(北京),第1期,頁42-45。\r\n唐蘇(2015年4月26日),一帶一路的三大困境和四大風險。多維新聞。取自news.dwnews.com/global/big5/news/2015-04-26/59649783.html.\r\n孫媛(2010) ,稅收對房地產市場價格調控的理論與經驗研究(碩士論文)。山東大學,濟南市。\r\n張志銘、湯名暉(2017),「『一帶一路』的發軔:從新制主義到論述制度論的觀點解析」。《國家發展研究》(台北),第16卷第2期,頁43-99。\r\n章錦標(2016),「房地產市場波動對地方財政收入的影響探討」。《財經界(學術版)》(北京),第8期,頁17。\r\n陶桓祥(1994),「房屋價格的形成與測算」。《價格月刊》(南昌),第2期,頁37-40。\r\n程開明、夏青(2008),「城市化與房地產價格關聯性的實證分析」。《價格理論與實踐》(北京),2008年第09期,頁44-45。\r\n黃雪萍(2007),強化稅收政策調控房價的作用研究(碩士論文)。西南財經大學,成都市。\r\n黃燕芬、陸俊、楊宜勇(2013),「新型城鎮化過程中的財政制度取向與配套改革」。《稅務研究》(北京),第9期,頁20-24。\r\n歐陽華生、黃智聰(2014),「區域間經濟發展、城鎮化與住房保障財政供給—基於空間計量模型框架的實證研究」。《財貿經濟》(北京),2014年第6期,頁5-13。\r\n葛玲燕、朱萍(2016),「城鎮化對房地產市場發展影響的實証分析-以杭州市為例」。《現在城市》(南京),第11卷第2期,頁47-50。\r\n鄭倩(2014),土地財政、城鎮化與產業結構(碩士論文)。廈門大學,廈門市。\r\n薛菲,袁汝華(2014),「城鎮化水平對我國房地產業影響的實證分析」。《經濟地理》(長沙),第34卷第4期,頁78-83。\r\n二、英文文獻\r\nAfonso, António and Ricardo M. Sousa (2011), “What Are the Effect of Fiscal Policy on Asset Markets.” Economic Modelling, 28, pp. 1871-1890.\r\nArellano, M. and O. Bover (1995), “Another Look at the Instrumental Variables Estimation of Error-Components Models.” Journal of Econometrics, 68, pp. 29-51.\r\nChen, Junhua, Fei Guo, and Ying Wu (2011), “One Decade of Urban Housing Reform in China: Urban Housing Price Dynamics and the Role of Migration and Urbanization, 1995-2005.”Habitat International, 35, pp. 1-8.\r\nDeng, Xiangzheng, Jikun Huang, Scott Rozelle, and Emi Uchida (2008), “Growth, Population and Industrialization, and Urban Land Expansion of China.” Journal of Urban Economics, 63, pp. 96-115.\r\nGranger, C.W.J. (1969) , “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods.” Econometrica, 37(3), pp. 424-438.\r\nHellström, J. (2008), “Who Leads, Who Follows? Re-Examining the Party–Electorate Linkages on European Integration.” Journal of European Public Policy, 15, pp. 1127- 1144.\r\nHoltz-Eakin, D., W. Newey, and H. S. Rosen (1988), “Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data.” Econometrica, 56(6), pp. 1371-1395.\r\nHurlin C. and Venet B. (2001),“Granger Causality Tests in Panel Data Models with Fixed Coefficients.” Working Paper, Eurisco, Universit´e Paris IX Dauphin.\r\nJustesen, M. (2008), “The Effect of Economic Freedom on Growth Revisited: New Evidence on Causality from a Panel of Countries 1970-1999.” European Journal of Political Economy, 24, pp. 642-660.\r\nKiviet, Jan F. (1995) , “On Bias, Inconsistency, and Efficiency of Various Estimators in Dynamic Panel Data Models.” Journal of Econometrics, 68, pp. 53-78.\r\nKottis, Athena (1971), “Impact of Migration on Housing in Urban Areas.” The Annals of Regional Science, 5(1), pp. 117-124.\r\nLevin, A., C. F. Lin, and C. S. J. Chu (2002), “Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties.” Journal of Econometrics, 108, pp. 1-24.\r\nMaziarz, Mariusz (2015), “A Review of the Granger-causality Fallacy.” The Journal of Philosophical Economics: Reflections on Economic and Social Issues, 8(2), pp. 86-105.\r\nNaylor, Thomas H. (1967), “The Impact of Fiscal and Monetary Policy in The Housing Market.” Law and Contemporary Problems, 32(3), pp. 384-396.\r\nPan, Jiun-Nan, Jr-Tsung Huang & Tsun-Feng Chiang (2015), “Empirical Study of The Local Government Deficit, Land Finance and Real Estate Market in China.” China Economic Review, 32, pp. 57-67.\r\nPedroni, P. (1999), “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors.” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(1), pp. 653- 670.\r\nPedroni, P. (2000), “Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels.” Advances in Econometrics, 15, pp. 93-130.\r\nPedroni, P. (2001), “Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointegrated Panels.” Review of Economics and Statistics, 83(4), pp. 727-731.\r\nSmith, Barton A. (1976), “The Supply of Urban Housing.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 90(3), pp. 389-405.\r\nTervo, Hannu (2009), “Centres and Peripheries in Finland:Granger Causality Tests Using Panel Data.” Spatial Economic Analysis, 4(4), pp. 377-390.\r\nTselios, Vassilis (2014), “The Granger-causality Between Income and Educational Inequality: A Spatial Cross-regressive VAR Framework.” Annual Regional Science, 53, pp. 221-24.
描述: 碩士
國立政治大學
國家發展研究所
105261016
資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105261016
資料類型: thesis
Appears in Collections:學位論文

Files in This Item:
File SizeFormat
01.pdf1.05 MBAdobe PDF2View/Open
Show full item record

Google ScholarTM

Check

Altmetric

Altmetric


Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.