可支配所得與未來不確定性因素對於家戶消費支出的影響

Abstract

本文利用2016年主計處家庭收支調查之橫斷面資料探討家戶可支配所得與未來不確定因素對其消費支出的影響。除了透過建立OLS迴歸模型觀察風險相關解釋變數對於家戶消費支出與家戶非醫療消費支出的邊際效果，亦利用各種標準將家戶分組，觀察各群體面對風險時消費行為的異質性。此外，透過分量迴歸(Quantile Regression)檢視各解釋變數在特定條件分量下對於消費的邊際效果，將可比OLS模型更精確且完整地刻畫消費者在風險下的消費行為。\n實證結果發現，較高的教育程度、社會保險投保金額與私人醫療險，以及較完整的家庭組織將可透過減少未來各種不確定因素的程度，降低預防性儲蓄動機，進而增加家戶之當期消費。迴歸結果亦顯示，面對較高風險的群組皆呈現較高的邊際消費傾向，意味著當期消費支出與當期可支配所得存在一正向關係，且此正向關係隨不確定性的上升而提高，隱含對風險較為敏感的個人擁有較高的邊際消費傾向。

In this paper, we use the cross-sectional data of the report on the survey of family income and expenditure in 2016 to analyze the effects of disposable income and future uncertainty on household consumption. In addition to establishing the OLS regression model to observe the marginal effects of risk-related independent variables on household consumption and non-medical consumption, we also used various criteria to group households and observed the heterogeneity of consumer behavior under uncertainty. Besides, through quantile regression, we can examine the marginal effect of each independent variable on consumption under certain quantile, which can be more accurate and complete than the OLS model to characterize consumer behavior under uncertainty.\nThe empirical results show that the education level, the amount of social insurance coverage, the integrity of the family organization structure, and the private medical insurance can reduce the degree of uncertainty in the future and reduce the incentives for precautionary saving, thereby increasing the household`s current consumption. The regression results also suggest that the higher-risk groups show higher marginal propensity to consume. This implies that there is a positive relationship between current consumption and disposable income in the current period, and this positive relationship increases as uncertainty increases, suggesting that individuals who are more sensitive to risk have a higher marginal propensity to consume.