評估2018年台灣嚇阻中國的能力：台灣針對中國侵略的防堵程度如何?

Abstract

台灣與中國捍衛的目標彼此相互衝突。如果有必要，中國甚至不惜以武力統一台灣，而台灣則是設法抵抗對岸的併吞。中國對台灣施加的壓力隨著蔡英文（民進黨）在2016年當選總統而加劇。\n約翰‧米爾斯海默主張嚇阻是對潛在敵方可行的具體策略，因此，我們必須了解敵方以及防守方的策略，方可分析嚇阻評估條件。也就是說，我們試圖由反對中國對台統一策略以及其盟友的回應，來評估台灣的嚇阻策略。\n本論文試圖以中國對台兩種不同但卻相輔相成的威脅為考量，其一為政治，另一個則為軍事，來解釋台灣的嚇阻策略。政治及軍事形成了一個整體不斷加劇，目標在於促使台北服從北京所開出的條件。\n台灣尚有嚇阻能力，但是關於中國在敵人、高動機、不交戰策略以及不斷增長的軍事力量的錯誤看法的結合，可能會造就嚇阻失效的態勢。美國近期加強與台灣的關係，卻是在中美緊張局勢加劇的情況下發展，這絲毫不是穩定跡象。除此之外，台灣在軍事現代化苦於追趕中國步伐。最後，台灣在逃脫中國所設下不交戰策略的圈套上陷入困境。

The goals defended by Taiwan and China are in conflict with each other; China wishes to unify, by force if necessary, and Taiwan seeks to resist annexation. The Chinese pressures against Taiwan intensified following the election of Tsai Ing-wen (DPP) in 2016.\nJohn J. Mearsheimer argues that deterrence is a function of the specific strategy available to the potential attacker. Therefore, one needs to understand both the attacker and the defender’s strategies in order to analyze the condition of a deterrence posture. Accordingly, this thesis will attempt to assess Taiwan’s deterrence by opposing China’s strategies for bringing unification to Taiwan and its allies’ responses.\nThis study also aims to cast a new light on Taiwan’s deterrence by considering that the Chinese threat on Taiwan is two-fold, with two separated but mutually reinforcing strategies, one being political, the other military. Both form a consistent whole, an escalation process designed to push Taipei to abide by Beijing terms.\nTaiwan’s deterrence holds but the combination of China’s misperceptions of its adversaries, high motivations, short-of-war tactics, and growing military power could, over the long-term, create the conditions for a deterrence failure. The U.S. has recently tightened its ties to Taiwan but this development takes place amid greater Sino – U.S. tensions, which is hardly a sign of stability. Also, Taiwan is having a tough times to modernize its military at a pace commensurate with that of China. Finally, Taiwan is struggling to escape the trap set by China’s short-of-war tactics.