中國崛起與「國家利益」的概念演變（1980~2016）：一個權力結構轉變的視角

Abstract

近年來，中國大陸關於「核心利益」的概念範圍逐漸擴大。雖然核心利益的概念逐漸成為中國大陸與其他大國博弈的重要工具，但是現有對中國大陸核心利益的研究仍侷限於個案的討論，系統性的研究並不多見。本文以華爾茲的「體系理論」作為理論基底，將國際權力轉變的結構性壓力作為解釋變項，輔之以中國大陸不同時期的戰略選擇與周邊國家的回應作為中介變項，試圖構建一個能夠較為全面追溯中國大陸利益概念變化的分析架構。本文初步判定，自二十世紀八十年代以來，中國大陸利益概念的變化可主要歸結為三大類型，亦即：「內需型國家利益」、「外衍型國家利益」與「對抗型核心利益」。並且，基於本文分析架構的預測，若國際權力結構繼續增大，中國大陸的「核心利益」概念將會向「聯盟型共同利益」轉變。

The scope of China’s “core interest” narrative is largely extended with its growing capability and increasing regional influence. Although the “core interest” has become China’s one of the most important instruments in competing with other great powers, the current literatures are still limited to case studies, which means that systematic research on such concept is rare. By selecting power structure in international politics as the independent variable, and adding China’s foreign strategic choice and the responses from surrounding countries as the intervening variable, this article attempts to construct a theoretical framework useful to trace the evolutionary narrative of China’s “core interest,” and predict forthcoming changes in the future. In accordance with the theoretical framework, the evolution of China’s “core interest” narrative can be divided into three phases since 1980s: domestic demand national interest, extensible national interest, and adversary core interest. If external pressure from international power structure continues to grow, adversary core interest will evolve into alliance common interest in near future.