Political Accountability and Voting Behavior: A Case Study of Gas Blast of Kaohsiung City in 2014

Abstract

＂Throwing the rascal out＂ is one of the bedrock principles in modern democracy. The idea of ＂accountability＂ is thus realized by replacing under-performed politicians by qualified ones. However, it is often found that citizen fails to identify the real ＂rascal＂ as well as non-performance issues carries more weight in citizen`s voting choices in election. In Taiwan, the demand for accountable governance is even more pressing as Taiwan has entered a new phrase of democratic consolidation. This paper focuses on the event of gas blast in Kaohsiung City in 2014 as a case study of the association between political accountability and voter`s choice in the year end election for city mayor. Special attention is paid to citizen`s perception of responsibility attribution of the event and how the perception affects citizen`s vote choice in mayoral election. Based on the analyses of post-election survey, this paper concludes that, in addition to the conventional factors such as party identification and approval rating, citizen`s perception of responsibility attribution and evaluation of government`s responses toward the event also play significant roles in election. It also shows that, comparing to the long term psychological or ambiguous approval factors, the gas blast event as a case study of political accountability is more able to examine the electoral impact of political accountability. In the last part of this paper, a brief concluding remarks and the suggestions of studying political accountability in Taiwan will be provided.

透過選舉表達民意是當代民主重要的運作原則之一，此一過程也體現了政治課責之價值。然而，選舉時選民可能無法客觀地確認哪些人是需要為錯誤負起責任，且其它與政治表現沒有直接關聯的因素也可能影響選民對政治人物表現的判斷，使民主理論所主張選民可以透過選舉淘汰表現不好的政治人物的想像，無法在具體經驗中被驗證。事實上，政治課責的實踐與民主治理的好壞息息相關，在臺灣走向成熟民主國家的過程中，此一課題顯得更加重要。本文以2014年11月底的高雄市氣爆事件為研究對象，藉由政治課責的理論觀點，瞭解高雄市選民對該事件責任歸屬的認知，以及這樣的認知如何影響其市長選舉的投票行為。本文發現高雄市選民在該年的市長選舉中，其投票決定固然仍舊受到諸如政黨認同與施政表現等傳統因素的影響，但是選民對氣爆事件的責任歸屬也對其投票決定具有影響力。此一結果也透露出，相較於選民長期心理與情感取向的政黨認同因素，以及選民可能依據模糊資訊所致的政府施政評估因素，具有選民感受程度深、注意程度高以及時間接近選舉時程的氣爆事件，更能直接檢驗政治課責在選舉過程中的作用。