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題名: | Generation Effects? Evolution of Independence-Unification Views in Taiwan, 1996-2016 | 作者: | 黃紀 Huang, Chi |
貢獻者: | 政治系 | 日期: | Apr-2019 | 上傳時間: | 5-Oct-2018 | 摘要: | The landslide victory of the Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan’s 2016 presidential and legislative elections is often interpreted as a persistent swing in attitudes toward cross-strait relations and Taiwan independence. Popular as this interpretation may be, it still runs the risk of mistaking a short-term reaction to a lame duck president’s policy performance for a long-term change in attitudes. This study analyzes the evolution of independence–unification (IU) views in the Taiwan population from 1996 to 2016. After reviewing the literature on political generations in Taiwan, I hypothesize that a long-term cohort succession replacing older prounification generations accounted for the evolution toward proindependence views. By pooling six independent face-to-face surveys into repeated cross-sectional data, this study applies a comprehensive multilevel cross-classified random-effect model of age–period–cohort analysis. Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation results confirm that, besides age and period effects, younger cohorts and the 1999 Taiwan-centered high school curriculum have had significant effects on the change in trends in IU views. \r\n\r\n(PDF) Generation Effects? Evolution of Independence–Unification Views in Taiwan, 1996-2016. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324167544_Generation_Effects_Evolution_of_Independence-Unification_Views_in_Taiwan_1996-2016 [accessed Aug 24 2018]. | 關聯: | Electoral Studies, Vol.58, pp.103-112 | 資料類型: | article | DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2018.12.010 |
Appears in Collections: | 期刊論文 |
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1996-2016.pdf | 1.46 MB | Adobe PDF2 | View/Open |
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