The Impact of the Tiananmen Incident on Mainland China`s Provincial Leadership Appointment--A Brief Explanation of Second-Generation Elite Studies

Abstract

None of the extreme scenarios suggested by Western scholars after Tiananmen-serious factional conflict, a military coup, geographic fragmentation, or revolution-have been validated to date. rt was recently suggested that mainland China`s political development may be better observed from the angles of factional relations within the center, civil-military relations, center-local relations, and state-society relations, and that these four relationships may be explored through the behavior and performance of the elite. Second-generation elite studies emerged in the West in the 1980s. It has two special characteristics. First, it adopts a state-centered approach and regards members of the elite as specific actors of the state capable of influencing political and economic development. Second, members of the elite are not regarded only as a class; their behavior, attitude, and performance are used to explain the political, economic, and social environment under their influence and to predict possible outcomes. In the study of national development, application of this approach has already obtained fruitful results. In this article, the author applies the methods of second-generation elite studies to examine the turnover of mainland China`s provincial leaders after Tiananmen. The results show that the Tiananmen incident had a considerable impact on Deng`s reform of the political system and resulted in a higher degree of political instability. The center, therefore, tried to strengthen control over the provincial elite before the end of 1992.