中國大陸房地產景氣波動對於經濟機會不平等影響之研究

Abstract

本研究檢視中國大陸房地產市場景氣波動對於中國家戶所得結構的影響，並由此結果推論中國大陸房地產景氣波動對於中國人民經濟機會不平等的影響。研究所使用的資料為2000 年至2011 年之中國省級追蹤資料，估計方法為動態追蹤資料模型與系統GMM 估計式（The Dynamic Panel Data Model with System GMM estimator）。估計結果顯示房地產市場景氣攀升帶動中國城鎮家戶之財產與投資所得上升幅度大於薪資與經營所得之上升幅度，兩者相差幅度達20%-30%，顯示經濟機會傾向於富有階級，漸趨不平等。相反的，房地產市場景氣攀升帶動中國農村家戶之薪資與經營所得上升幅度大於財產與投資所得的上升幅度，隱含著房地產市場景氣攀升於農村地區所創造的經濟機會較為平均。

This study empirically examines the impact of housing market activities on the income structure of Chinese households and, based on the findings, draws inferences on the impact of housing market activities on the equality of economic opportunities faced by Chinese citizens. We establish a panel dataset consisting of 31 provinces from 2000 to 2011 and adopt a dynamic panel data model with system GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) estimators as the empirical strategy. The results show that among urban households, the booming housing market in China caused a larger increase in the share of property and investment-related income than wage and business income by 20% to 30%, implying that economic opportunities were more skewed to the rich. Conversely, among rural households, the booming housing market caused greater growth in wage and household operation incomes, implying more equal economic opportunities.