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Title: Electoral Competition, Incumbency, News Coverage, and Prediction Market Price: A Preliminary Study of Campaign Contributions and Spending in Taiwan's 2016 Legislative Election
Authors: 蔡佳泓
Tsai, Chia-hung
Contributors: 選研中心
Keywords: news coverage ; prediction market price ; contribution ; spending ; legislative election 
 新聞報導 ; 預測市場價格 ; 捐款 ; 支出 ; 立委選舉
Date: 2018-05
Issue Date: 2018-12-18 17:38:29 (UTC+8)
Abstract: In a political campaign, candidates attempt to mobilize voters by using contributions from individuals, corporations, and political parties. It is an accepted fact of democracy that campaigns should attempt to outdo one another in both the amount they collect in contributions and what they spend on campaigns. Previous research has explored the incumbent advantage in campaign finance, but many interesting factors remain. For instance, is fund-raising aided by factors such as the closeness of an election or a candidate's tenure in the Legislative Yuan? In this study, we explain campaign contributions using data from prediction markets and television news reports to account for variations in campaign spending. Our results suggest that incumbent advantage does indeed affect contributions and that DPP candidates outperformed other candidates in campaign finance. We also find that previous electoral margins and television news coverage contribute significantly to campaign donations, and that election betting has an impact on spending. These findings suggest that a political party's general campaign can influence the election race of an individual candidate, and that contributors tend to bet on likely winners, deepening the influence of the electoral system on competing political parties.
Relation: 選舉研究, Vol.25, No.1, pp.117-147
Data Type: article
DOI 連結:
Appears in Collections:[選舉研究中心] 期刊論文

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