只租不賣的臺灣友邦：斷交政治經濟學

Abstract

本文檢視9個在2000年至2013年與中華民國（以下簡稱臺灣）斷交的國家，以探討友邦與我斷交背後的中華人民共和國（以下稱中國）因素。本研究發現，對臺灣友邦來說，獲取來自中國在貿易;投資與金援的經濟考量，以及透過中國的支持提升其國際地位與穩固國內政權的政治考量，是影響友邦是否願意與臺灣延續外交關係的重要因素。大部分友邦在與臺灣斷交後，均能獲取大量來自中國的經濟與政治利益，即便是擁有長期穩固邦誼的友邦亦然。從友邦的角度來看，透過遊走於兩岸的外交競爭之中，讓臺灣與中國競租外交關係，能夠大幅提升其國家利益，因此道德與理想難以在極度現實的友邦爭奪戰中勝出。對臺灣而言，邦交國無法長期收買，只能短期租用，若維持邦交國數量仍是外交政策的重要目標，則臺灣恐需要更全盤地;有彈性且客制化地制定出有效的經濟誘因，以提升與各國建交的可能性。

This paper investigates the underlying China factor that played out when nine countries ended diplomatic relations with the Republic of China (hereafter called ‘Taiwan’). Research shows acquiring economic benefits from China, in terms of trade, investment and foreign aid, securing China’s support for enhancing international status and consolidating domestic political power are important factors when an ally of Taiwan considers breaking ties. Most allies receive immediate and significant political and economic benefits from China, even those who have been allies of Taiwan for many years, as soon as they severe ties. They can greatly improve their national interests by capitalizing on the Taiwan-China diplomatic battle. Thus, Taiwan cannot win this fight by appealing to morals and ideals. Diplomatic allies are not for sale; Taiwan is only able to rent them for a while. If maintaining the number of diplomatic allies remains a priority for Taiwan, the government needs to come up with more comprehensive, flexible and customized economic incentives in order to (re-)establish diplomatic relationships with target countries.