台灣實施全民基本所得之情境分析

Abstract

隨著全球科技快速的進展，人工智慧技術將會導致未來產生大量 失業人口，而貧富差距的問題也會因而隨之擴大。準此，許多學者專 家倡議全民基本所得(Universal Basic Income, 以下簡稱 UBI)，視之為 未來有效解決社會問題的可行方案。故探討台灣是否能夠實施 UBI 乃是值得深入探討的議題。\n本研究旨在透過前瞻方法論之情境分析法，歸納出台灣實施 UBI 之情境。藉由 UBI 相關文獻的蒐集與彙整，從政策、經濟、社會、科 技四大面向分析影響實施 UBI 之重要因素，並依此建構專家學者問卷。 以瞭解專家學者對於台灣實施 UBI 之意見。本研究假設未來台灣實施 UBI 係透過實名制區塊鏈技術進行發放，發放額度為每個月大人 10,000 元、小孩 5,000 元。最後，依照專家填答問卷的結果歸納出台 灣未來 30 年內實施 UBI 的可能情境。\n根據研究之結果顯示，「只欠東風」此一情境為台灣實施 UBI 最可能面臨的情境。其情境條件為政策改革成功、科技進展順利、尌業意 願消極，表示人工智慧技術的進展在未來 30 年會臻於成熟，促使我國政府必頇 實施 UBI，作為失業人口的救濟方案。且能順利藉由稅收制度的改革籌措發放 UBI 的資金，並進一步改善我國現行的社會福利系統。然而，發放 UBI 可能導 致民眾的尌業意願下降，造成台灣的競爭力衰退的隱憂。\n本文建議政府將 UBI 的發放額度設在可以滿足民眾基本生活需求為原則， 包括大眾交通運輸、基本醫療保險及日常生活飲食等正常財。而名牌、美食、豪 宅、名車等奢侈財，仍需由民眾額外工作所賺取的收入來支付，以降低 UBI 造 成民眾尌業意願下降的可能性。此外，UBI 政策的推動步驟，宜先選擇相對貧窮 的特定地區詴辦，以瞭解名眾對於實施 UBI 的接受度，再針對 UBI 的方案內容 予以調整，最後，以推行 UBI 至全體國民為目標。

With the rapid development of global science and technology, artificial intelligence will lead to a large number of unemployed people in the future, and the gap between the rich and the poor will be enlarged accordingly. Therefore, many scholars and experts advocate Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a viable solution to social problems in the future. Hence, it is worth exploring whether Taiwan can implement UBI.\nThe purpose of this study is to summarize the scenario of implementing UBI in Taiwan through Scenario analysis of Foresight methodology. Based on the collection and integration relevant literature of UBI, this paper analyzes the important factors which influence the implementation of UBI from four aspects including policy, economy, society ,science and technology. Through the questionnaire , we can understand the opinions of experts and scholars on the implementation of UBI in Taiwan. This study assumes that implementing UBI in Taiwan will be distributed through permissioned blockchain, with a quota of NT$10,000 per month for adults and NT$5,000 for children. Finally, the possible scenario of implementing UBI in Taiwan in the next 30 years will be summarized according to the results of the questionnaire.\nAccording to the results of the study, " Everything is ready except one thing is missing " is the most likely scenario for Taiwan to implement UBI. Its scenario conditions would be successful in science and technology and policy reform, employment willingness to negative. This scenario said the progress of the artificial intelligence into mature in the next 30 years, has prompted the Taiwan government must implement UBI, as unemployment relief program. Moreover, UBI funds smoothly through the reform of the tax system, and improve Taiwan`s current social welfare system. However, UBI may lead to a decline in the willingness of the public to work and a potential loss of competitiveness in Taiwan.\nThis study suggests that the government should set the quota of UBI in accordance with the principle of meeting people`s basic living needs, including public transportation, basic medical insurance and daily diet. On the other hand, luxury wealth, such as brands, luxury houses and cars, still needs to be paid by people`s income from extra work, so as to reduce the possibility that UBI will reduce people`s employment intention. Moreover, UBI policy driven step, should be to choose the relatively poor certain areas as pilot program, in order to understand the acceptance of implementing UBI. Finally, aiming at implementing UBI to the nation.