「氣候變遷災害衝擊之整合性風險治理」永續科學計畫

Abstract

21世紀全世界各國皆須面對許多影響地球與人類永續性的衝擊，這些潛在風險逐漸呈現「高度科學複雜性及不確定性」、「高度政治經濟敏感度」、「牽涉議題及部門多元化」，以及「影響層面跨國界、跨世代」的趨勢，這些特性帶給科學家以及決策者在發掘及解決這些風險問題上極大的挑戰。也因如此，學界們開始發展「跨領域整合」、「成果應用落實」的「永續科學研究」。受氣候變遷之影響，臺灣的極端天氣與氣候事件之強度及頻率已逐漸改變，再加上長期工業與經濟發展造成的環境、社會、土地之變遷，災害風險已顯著增加。這不僅將改變我國水文氣象類型災害的特性（如：空間特性），更將直接挑戰現有災害防救體系。換言之，「未來氣候變遷災害風險是否超過各地現有的承載力與因應能力」、「環境變遷是否會驅動災害風險，災害風險又會影響哪些土地利用型態」、「我國的政府體制又該如何因應這些災害風險」，這些是影響國人安全與國家發展永續性的重要議題，因此，「氣候變遷災害風險」是我國現階段亟待探討的永續科學研究議題及政策問題。因此，本文檢視國內外推動現況、回顧相關文獻、分析我國目前的科研缺口，發現氣候變遷災害風險治理必須整合體制政策、科學研究、公民社會等三面向，故本文將「氣候變遷災害衝擊之整合性風險治理」擇為核心議題，並具體規劃科學計畫，包含四項研究方向和其項下12項研究重點，希望我國學者及相關單位未來能投入此議題之研究，並將之落實應用，最終能發展建構出針對氣候變遷災害衝擊，且適合我國國情的整合性風險治理架構及機制。

In the 21st century nearly every country in the world needs to face numerous impacts that affect the sustainability of the earth and human beings. These potential risks have been observed as ＂high scientific complexity and uncertainty,＂ ＂high political and economic sensitivity,＂ ＂diverse issues and sectors involved,＂ and ＂transboundary and intergenerational influence.＂ These characteristics bring tremendous challenges to scientists and decision makers in discovering and solving these risk problems. Hence, academia begins to develop Sustainability Science, a research area emphasizing interdisciplinary integration and the application and implementation of research outcomes. The intensity and frequency of extreme weather and climate events in Taiwan have changed because of changing climate. In addition, due to the environmental, societal, and land use changes caused by long-term industrial and economic development, disaster risks have been significantly enhanced. This problem not only would change the features of hydro-meteorological hazards in Taiwan (e.g., spatial feature), but also would directly challenge the existing disaster management system. In other words, questions such as ＂whether future climate change disaster risks will exceed a place`s current carrying capacity and response ability,＂ ＂will environmental change drive disaster risks and which land use type will be affected by disaster risks,＂ ＂how will our government and institutions respond to these disaster risks＂ are important inquiries that may influence the nation`s citizens` safety and sustainability. Thus, climate change disaster risks are key issues in terms of sustainability science research and policy. Therefore, this article examines current reality and literature, analyzes the scientific research gaps, and finds out that climate change disaster risk governance needs to integrate three dimensions (i.e., institution and policy, scientific research, and civil society). This article proposes ＂Integrated risk governance of climate change disaster impact＂ as the core issue, and plans the sustainability science plan which includes four research directions and twelve research subjects. It anticipates that researchers and agencies can involve in this research and apply the outcomes. Ultimately a framework of integrated risk governance that focuses on climate change disaster impacts and suits for Taiwan`s condition can be developed and constructed in the country.