世代分配的生命歷程經驗─兩個年輪的比較

Abstract

本論文以世代與生命歷程之觀點探討1960年輪與1990年輪於生命歷程中所經驗到的人口現象、人口結構與人口依賴比的變化，以及在教育與經濟經驗、消費等行為與結果的差異，以此討論世代之間的分配問題。研究發現從生命歷程的觀點來看，1960年輪與1990年輪的生命歷程的經驗確實大異其趣。1960年輪出生於總生育率相對較高的年代，1990年輪則出生在總生育率較低的年代，從人口依賴的角度來看，1960年輪在其約58歲時面臨到人口依賴開始持續上揚的狀況，1990年輪，則是在其約28歲時面臨此情境。\n就年輪間所取得的資源來看，隨著教育的擴張與投資，1990年輪則比1960年輪所取得的教育經費高出甚多，不僅公部門對於教育支出增加，1990年輪之父母對於小孩的教育投資亦增加。1960年輪的教育程度多為高職畢業，大學畢業者可謂相當稀少，1990年輪大學以上者則超過五成，顯見高等教育的擴張，確實提升了年輕世代的人力資本。\n在勞動參與方面，1960年輪的男性勞動參與率在24歲到50歲間都接近九成，然而女性的勞動參與率則不到六成， 1990年輪的男性與女性勞動參與率則明顯相近，在25歲後兩性的勞參與都將近9成。對於1990年輪說，在其30歲以下時，就要面對經濟的困境，在30歲以下時，1960年輪失業率甚低，1990年輪則都比1960年輪來的高，但是對於1960年輪而言，在其40歲之後，失業率則開始增加，造成中高齡失業的問題。\n若以消費與所得的多寡代表生活之水準，採用國民移轉帳資料來估算兩個世代之消費與所得數額，在所得低於消費之年紀，則代表是從家人移轉而來。從所得來看，每一代都比上一代的所得有所增長，其中一個因素可能為青年世代之整體的勞動參與率較高的影響。就消費而言，亦是一代比一代來的高，因而1960年輪的所得與消費水準都比1990年輪為低。至於在所得不足以支付消費的年紀，此部分之支出從家庭移轉而來，消費與所得差距的金額在1981年差距較小，而在2015年時則較大。比較兩年輪生命歷程之總人口消費與所得，我們發現對於1960年輪來說的父母所提供之養育成本低於1990年輪之父母。\n我們發現1990年輪雖然在其步入職場時，面對較不友善的經濟環境，但是從其他資源來看，相對於1960年輪而言，1990年輪所取得的資源都有巨幅的增加，代表1990年輪的成長環境優越於1960年輪。

This thesis explores the changes in demographics, population dependency ratios and behaviors and outcomes in education and labor participatation, consumption experienced in the 1960 and 1990 generations from the perspective of generations and life course. The study found that from the point of view of life history, the experience of the life course of the 1960 generation and the 1990 generation is indeed quite different. The 1960 generation was born in a relatively high total fertility rate. The 1990 generation was born in a period of low total fertility. From the perspective of population dependence, the generations in 1960 faced population dependence when they were about 58 years old. The situation of continued upswing, the 1990 generation, faced this situation when it was about 28 years old.\nAs far as the resources obtained, with the expansion and investment of education, the 1990 generations are much higher than the education funds obtained in the 1960 generation. Not only did public sector education spending increase, but parents of the 1990 generation also increased their educational investment. The education level of the 1960 generations was mostly graduated from higher vocational colleges. The number of college graduates was quite rare. The 1990 gernration , more than 50% of the generations graduated frome colleges and universities, showing that the expansion of higher education actually improved the human capital of the younger generation.\nIn terms of labor participation, the male labor participation rate of the 1960 generation was close to 90% between the ages of 24 and 50. However, the labor participation rate of women was less than 60%. For the 1990 generation , the male and female labor participation rates were similar. After the age of 25, the participation of both sexes is nearly 90%. For the 1990 generation , when they were under 30, they had to face economic difficulties. Under the age of 30, the unemployment rate in the 1960 generation was very low, by contrast , the 1990 generations were higher than those in the 1960 generation , but for the 1960 generation, after the age of 40, the unemployment rate began to increase, causing problems of middle-aged unemployment.\nIf the amount of consumption and income represents the level of living, the national transfer account data is used to estimate the consumption and income of the two generations. From the perspective of income, each generation has increased compared with the income of the previous generation. One of the factors may be the higher labor participation rate of the youth generation as a whole. As far as consumption is concerned, it is also higher than that of the previous generation. Therefore, the income and consumption levels of the 1960 generation are lower than those of the 1990 generation . As for the age at which the income is insufficient to cover consumption, this part of the expenditure was transferred from the family. The difference between the consumption and income gap was small in 1981, but it was larger in 2015. Comparing the total population consumption and income of the two generations, we found that the parenting costs for the 1960 generation were lower than those of the 1990 generation.\nWe found that although the 1990 generation faced a less friendly economic environment as it entered the workplace, from other sources, the resources acquired by the 1990s have increased dramatically compared to the 1960 generation , representing the growth environment of the 1990 generation is superior to the 1960 generation.