波海三國加入北約之戰略研究

Abstract

波羅的海三國〈愛沙尼亞、拉脫維亞、立陶宛〉處於後冷戰時期的國際秩序架構中，體認到加入北約以融入歐洲集體防禦體系，而與西歐一體化、與俄羅斯關係正常化、方為其防衛國家安全的上乘選擇。美國為使波海三國納編進其勢力範圍，故也將波海三國列為「北約東擴」的重要目標之一。俄羅斯面對這種情勢，基於國家尊嚴、經濟利益、以及歐洲地位的考量，極力反對波海三國加入北約。但在北約「信心建立措施」的運作之下，俄羅斯對波海三國加入北約的反對態度已漸趨軟化。作者認為，「信心建立措施」是波海三國加入北約正在運用也必須持續進行的最佳戰略。

In the new international order of the Post Cold War, the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) have realized that the best methods to uphold their national security include: joining NATO, participating in the collective defense system in Europe, unifying with Western Europe, and normalizing ties with Russia. In order to integrate the Baltic States into the western security arrangement, the United States has included the Baltic States as an important goal in their plan for NATO Enlargement. Based on concerns of national dignity, economic benefit, and its international position in Europe, Moscow has strictly opposed the idea of these three states joining NATO. However, under NATO’s “confidence building measures” (CBMs) Russia’s attitude has gradually softened. The author thus argues that CBMs are the best strategy for the Baltic states to adopt in order to achieve their goal of joining NATO.