九○年代日本經濟不景氣之分析

Abstract

日本經濟在一九八七～九○年期間呈現顯著的泡沫現象。一九九○年初以後，股價和地價卻先後開始狂跌，礦工業生產也自此年初開始衰退。結果是泡沫經濟崩潰，景氣陷入長期衰退，金融業呆帳累累、弊病叢生，直到一九九九年三月仍未見經濟復甦現象。特別是一九九七年第四季以來已連續五季出現實質GDP負成長，日本經濟企畫廳原預估一九九八年的實質GDP成長率可能是負成長1.8%，結果卻是負成長2.8%。九一年以來日本經濟為什麼轉入長期的衰退？這八年來日本政府採行過多次的經濟振興對策，為什麼成效有限？小淵內閣所實施的經濟對策和穩定金融方案，能否在一、兩年內發揮刺激景氣復甦和拯救金融業的功效？本文所獲得結論如下：一、日本經濟轉入長期衰退，其主要因素包括：貨幣政策和財政政策失敗、金融業管理不當、證券市場和外匯市場過度投機、金融機構轉為借貸，以及大眾對景氣信心不足。二、日本政府雖已陸續採取多次振興經濟對策，日本經濟情勢依舊十分嚴峻，但只要認真執行，其功效之發揮應該是遲早的問題。

Japan`s economy was characterized by the bubble phenomenon from 1987～90. However, stock prices began to decline in the beginning of 1990 and land prices then declined in the beginning of 1991. Mining and industrial production also began to fall beginning in 1990. As a result, the bubble economy burst and the economy fell into a long-term recession. The financial sector now holds many bad loans and has become severelly weakened. As of November 1998, there is no recovery in sight. Most notably, the real GDP growth rate has been negative for the five consecutive seasons beginning with the fourth season of 1997. Even Japan`s Economic Planning Agency has forecasted the 1988 real GDP growth rate as-1.8% or worse. This article explores the following questions: Why were Japan`s economy fall into a long-term recession beginning in 1991? Why were the economic recovery policies taken by Japanese government so ineffective? Can the new general economic policy and the strategies for stabilizing the financial system effectively stimulate the economy and strengthen monetary mechanisms? This study concludes that the most important factors behind the recession of Japan`s economy in recent years have been the failure of monetary and fiscal policy, faults in the inspection of financial markets, excessive speculation in stock and foreign exchange markets, the penitent attitude of monetary facilities, and the lack of consumer confidence in the economy.