中國大陸秈稻生產之經濟分析

Abstract

中國大陸自一九七八年改革開放以來，農產品統派購制度逐步取消，農產品由傳統的計畫生產逐步邁向生產經營自主化，使得農業生產結構發生了顯著的變化。秈稻生產於九○年代起大幅萎縮，出現供需嚴重失衡的情形。而另一方面秈稻生產成本在生產資料價格大帳上漲之壓力下，農民條益銳減，引起農民強烈的反彈。在比較利益的影響下，中國大陸經濟發達省分，農村拋荒情形日益嚴重，尤其農民與非農民所得差距日益擴大，地區間矛盾衝突愈形尖銳，使中國大陸在處理糧食問題時面對了極為嚴峻的挑戰。本研究針對大陸秈稻問題，由大陸及各農區產量、耕作面積、收購價格、各種生產投入要素成本，逐一分析，並建立計量模型，估算出各省秈稻之價格彈性、生產要素需求彈性及生產要素組合之技術進步傾向對其生產要素投入的影響，提供決策者及生產者較佳之決策參考，以兼顧國家糧食安全與生產都利潤之雙重目標。本研究主要發現有二點：第一、長期而言中國大陸糧食生產仍將面對高成本、低效率的惡劣環境，下一世紀開始前期中國大陸極有可能出現糧食總產量短缺、結構性短缺及地區性短缺之困境。第二、秈稻生產技術進步傾向於多使用資本與技術密集之生產要素投入，減少勞力生產要素，將引起大陸農村剩餘勞動力移轉之結構性問題，故農業產業化將是未來中國大陸能否順利解決大陸三農（農業、農村、農民）問題的關鍵因素。

Considerable attention has been given to the proper measurement, estimation, and analysis of the technological structure of Chinese agriculture. During the past four decade, studies motivated by duality theory have also analyzed regional farm production. No attempt has been made, however to analyze the Indica type rice production structure of Mainland China. China is a large nation in terms of both population and economy. Due to rapid development of industrial and commercial sectors, China`s agricultural sector has experienced substantial change in its production structure and profitability. One immediate impact of land reform was constrained expansion in farm size. Lester Brown points out that if countries become densely populated before industrialization takes place, they inevitably suffer a heavy loss of cropland. This loss of cropland quickly overrides the rise in land productivity, leading to a decline in grain production. The acrage of cultivated land of Indica type rice dropped from 31.8 million hectares to 27.4 million hectares. The output of Indica type rice decreased sharply in 1990`s. President Jiang Zemin warned that ”lagging agricultural growth could spawn problems that would threaten inflation, stability, and national economic development”. He indicated that some developed coastal areas where industrialization was particularly rapid had suffered a precipitous drop in the amount of acreage under cultivation, saying that this is ”a trend which must be reversed”. The purpose of this study is to exam the structure of agricultural production in the Mainland China using a ”single-output, multiple inputs” variable profit model. Specifically, input demand and output supply elasticities were estimated for Indica type rice and five inputs. 1.The effects of technical change on input were capital intensive and labor saving in nature for Indica type rice. This indicates the increasing use of inputs which are biased toward machinery and seed and against labor. The interrelatedness of the results from this analysis of farm production has significance for policy formulation. 2.The impact of single price change on all other inputs can easily be determined in such an integrated framework.