台灣政黨轉型與民眾統獨意向的變遷

Abstract

一九九三年，新國民黨連線因為統獨立場的不同，宣怖脫離國民黨另組新黨。一九九六年，代表急進台獨勢力的建國黨亦有自民進黨分離。與此同時，國民黨與民進黨在政策及意識型態上也經歷了一系列的轉變：國民黨被批評為「明統暗獨」，民進黨則被認為「漸趨務實」。本文擬由民眾統獨意向變遷的角度，來探討台灣政黨的轉型〈transition〉的原因與過程。本文檢討「向心競爭理論」或「趨中論」對台灣政黨轉型的解釋，在台灣這種尚處於「國家建立」和「民族建立」階段的國家，政黨與民意分佈的關係乃是辯證的交互影響，而非如上述理論所描述的單向反映。國民黨與民進黨既引導了民意的走向，亦各自調整其立場及策略，以追隨民意變遷的趨勢，獲取最大多數的選票。

Since 1993, party transition has occurred in the two major parties in Taiwan. On the one hand, the Kuomintang is criticized for its pretended willingness to reunite with Mainland China. On the other hand, the Democratic Progressive Party is also blamed for its increasingly practical position in the pursuit of Taiwan’s independence. This article describes the process of transition and tries to find the causes and reasons of the transition in light of the shifting distribution of people’s opinion on reunification and independence. After examining the dominant explanation, the convergence theory or centripetal competition, this article finds that, in a state like Taiwan which is still in the process of nation-building and state-building, the relations between political party and people’s opinion is dialectical and interactive, instead of being a static reflection as described by the convergence theory. The Kuomintang and the DPP both shaped the direction and distribution of people’s attitude toward reunion and independence, and at the same time, they also shifted their positions and strategies in order to follow the redirected attitude and to gain the largest portion of voters.