中共海軍現代化對亞太安全之影響

Abstract

近年來，中共海軍現代化已成為戰略學者與軍事觀察家關注的焦點，諸多學者咸認中共海軍軍力增長已對亞太安全構成潛在性威脅。在中共不排除使用武力維持領土主全與海洋權益情況下，中共海軍的現代化就格外值得吾人重視。台海危機與美濟礁事件雖未擴大成為區域性衝突，卻在在顯示「中國威脅論」絕非亞太國家威脅妄想下的論調，中共海軍現代化無疑地加深了各國對中共軍力擴張的疑慮。海軍具備的寬廣能力是國家遂行「強制性外交」強有力的工具，中共海軍能力的提升強化了決策者進行選項的能力，其可藉武力威脅迫使對方屈服或放棄既定目標，在政治上獲得「威攝」的效果。在可預見的未來，隨著中共海軍軍力的不斷增長，它將成為一支能在東亞太平洋產生明確影響的海軍武力，亞太國家在安全事務上亦將面臨著倍於往昔的挑戰。

Recently, many strategists and military observers have become seriously concerned about the influence of the PLAN’s modernization upon Asian-Pacific security. Due to the PRC’s refusal to denounce the use of force in solving territorial disputes and maintaining her maritime interests, the PLAN’s modernization will become the key factor in the strategic equation of Asian-Pacific security. This essay begins by providing a brief comprehensive overview of the PLAN’s intentions and capabilities. The next section covers the impact of the PLAN’s modernization on Asian-Pacific security. The third section interprets U.S>, Japan, R.O.C., and ASEAN responses to PLAN modernization which of the PLAN’s modernization disturbance. The conclusion lays out an assessment of the PLAN’s modernization and predicts PLAN force trends in the foreseeable future.