中共導彈攻台之可行性評估

Abstract

自從一九九五年七月二十一日，中共在我澎佳嶼海面實施導彈試射演習後，造成國人有著一股無名的恐懼。除了我國軍坦承無法加以反制外，其影響力已經產生了另一種比軍事層面更為巨大的衝擊，那就是嚴重打擊我國以政治、經濟兩大層面所交織而成的浮動民心。然而，中共導彈的實力，是否真如外界所預估的那般強大？我國面對此一威脅，又應如何因應？本文將對中共發展導彈現況作一分析，以及未來在台灣衝突中，飛彈所扮演的角色，並提出我國應有的作法與反制措施。

Since the PRC comducted missile tests close to Taiwan`s south-western coast on the 21th of July 1995, Taiwanese have become frightened by Chinese military exercise. Because Taiwan`s military defense system has reshown an inability to take effective counter meansnes, the psychological influence on society has led to an impact greater than the actual military threat to a degree strong enough to damage Taiwan`s politics and economy. However, the PRC`s ballistic missile capability is as strong as estimated? What is Taiwan supposed to do to face this threat? This article analyzes developments regarding the PRC`s ballistic missiles and the role of missiles in the unpredictable future conflict across the Taiwan Straight. Finally it proposes counter measures that Taiwan can apply.