中國大陸銀行體制變遷市場社會主義及之後

Abstract

本文依據財產權的觀點認為，迄今已超過二十年中國大陸銀行體系改革，是走在一條市場社會主義的改革路徑，即緊握財產所有權的公有制，逐步開放財產控制權的市場交易。但這條道路一路走來跌跌撞撞，在一九九三年後才確立。七年後的二○○○年九月，金融當局放開外幣存貸利率管制，並研擬擴大利率市場化，可說已走向理論上完全的市場社會主義。但在二十一世紀之初的加入世界貿易組織，將是中國大陸銀行體制面臨的最大挑戰，屆時中國大陸在加入五年要給予外國銀行國民待遇，但國內銀行管制是否會全面開放？由市場社會主義朝資本主義方向前進？本文認為仍有待中共官方和學界對這波通縮及國有企業和國有銀行死結問題的爭論和處置而定。

The reform of the banking system in Mainland China since 1979 was slow before 1993. After 1993, the reforms have moved along the path of market socialism. The central authorities created many reform packages in marketization, but limited privatization of ownership. In September of 2000, the government decided to get the interest rate of foreign currency deposit and loan ”marketized”-a milestone on the path to completing market socialism. Entering the WTO will, however, challenge Chinese market socialism. Will the market socialism of the banking system be completed? Will market socialism transform to capitalism? The author argues these answers depend on how the government and scholars discuss and manage the dilemma between national enterprises and national banks, and the wave of deflation that has occurred since 1997.