大陸國債近況與風險動態分析

Abstract

大陸自一九七九年起恢復發行國債，之後又實施擴張性財政政策，發行大量公債，以刺激國內有效需求，遂使政府財政赤字如債務規模不斷擴大，導致財政風險發生機率大增，國民經濟受損。本文目的在探討改革後大陸國債變動之主要原因為何？並評述國債融資利弊得失，之後利用風險指標討論國債發行與債還風險，藉以瞭解大陸目前是否存在財政危機？最後將指標值延伸至長期動態時間，企圖觀察各指標長期變化及相互間關係。本文發現，大陸國債債務發行風險值均高於國際安全標準，其財政風險相對較高；國民經濟應債實力雄厚，足以面對國債要求，相對風險較低，但政府部門應債力較脆弱，已超出國際標準甚多，對大陸財政未來發展構成若干威脅。就政府部門而言，其面對之發行與償還風險值具有正相關，有相同風險條件；就整體經濟而言，政府債務誘發之發行與償還風險值具有正相關，亦有相同風險條件。

Mainland China has resumed issuing national debt since 1979. Because of implementing an expansionary policy to stimulate domestic needs, its fiscal deficit and national debt increased rapidly. This policy caused a great increase in its fiscal risk and a negative impact on the national economy. In this study, the author first explores the causes behind Mainland China`s debt increase and evaluates the possibility of debt-financing risk. Then, a dynamic analysis is applied on the selected risk indicators to examine Mainland China`s relative risk. The indicators were analyzed in a long-term dynamic way to compare their trend and interrelationships. The findings of this study are that the value of issuing risk in China is higher than the international security standard, the liquidity ability of its national economy is good for debt while this ability of the government is relatively poor and could possibly threaten future fiscal development. As far as the government is concerned, there is a positive relationship between issuing and liquidity risk indicators, the conditions for both indicators are the same. As far as the national economy is concerned, the same conclusion can be made.