「十六大」後大陸的經濟改革與政治繼承

Abstract

中共已在二○○二年十一月中完成了「十六大」的召閉，並順利選出新的集體領導班子，然按照慣例，新領導班子的具體經濟改革政策要到二○○三年的三中全會才會出台。本文僅就江澤民時代經濟改革的成就及遺產來分析，中共新領導人所面對的是一個什麼樣的總體經濟格局？第三代頓導人留下來那些必須去處理的經濟問題？而新的領導人是否有足夠的政策自主空問來處理這些問題？本文認為，江澤民時代（朱鎔篡掌管經濟時期）最大的經濟成就在於「宏觀調控」政策的實施，創造了大陸改革開放以來為期最長的一段穩定成長，在束亞金融危機中脫穎而出，成為外資最大避風港，並在近半世紀第一次成為東亞地區的經濟強權。然而「宏觀調控」政策並沒有真正改變國家在經濟頓域中所扮演的角色，導致新的領導人必須面對銀行、財政、「三農」及失業四大經濟問題，在繼承政治給予新領導人有限的政策自主空問的情況下，「十六大」後新領導人處理這四大問題上難有突破性的進展。

The Chinese Communist Party has successfully finished the convention of its sixteenth congress and elected a new collective leadership team in the mid November of 2002. Although the entire substance of all economic policies will not be released until the Third Plenum of the 16th Congress in the second half of 2003, this paper intends to pin down what economic problems the new Chinese leadership has inherited via an analysis of the economic achievements and legacies of the Jiang era. A second goal is to discuss whether succession politics allows the new leaders the policy autonomy to tackle the problems. The argument is that the most significant achievement of the Jiang era (when Zhu Rongji was in charge of economic affairs) was to maintain economic stability and growth simultaneously through the implementation of “macroeconomic adjustment and control” policies. By achieving the longest stable growth in the reform era, China has emerged as the last harbor of foreign investment amid the turmoil of the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s, and has become a regional economic power for the first time in half a century. However, Zhu’s reform did not change the role of the state in the economy and, thus, left four major economic problems for the new leadership. They are bad bank bad loans, budget deficits, agricultural problems, and unemployment. Moreover, the political succession seems not to provide much room for the new leadership to earnestly deal with these problems.