兩岸金融深化之比較研究

Abstract

兩岸的經濟自一九四九年以後即分別在不同的政經體制下發展，但一九一七九年以後大陸改革開放政策的推動，卻使大陸經濟逐步朝向市場經濟體制的方面發展。台灣更在一九八九年銀行放民營後，加速金融體系的成長。本文為比較兩岸金融體系在歷經不同發展過程後的成效，乃與金融深化(Financial Deepening) 程度的衡量，作為檢視兩岸金融發展的主要依據。主要採用的指標包括貨幣供給量與國民生產毛額(GNP)的比率、政府公債及公司債餘額與GNP比率、股票市場與GNP的比率、平均每萬人使用之金融機構數、一年期儲蓄存款與放款利率差距等。經過各項指標的研究與分析顯示，台彎整體金融深化程度較大陸為高。其中銀行業、公司債、股市的發展高於大陸，但是政府公債成長部份則不如大陸，且近幾年來大陸為因應加入WTO，其金融深化速度有明顯加快的現象，與台灣的差距亦愈來愈近，而未來大陸金融深化程度是否會持續加速乃至於對台灣金融體系的發展形成競爭的壓力，還有待進一步觀察。

The governments of Taiwan and mainland China have been developing their economies under distinctly different systems since 1949. Taiwan adopted the more advanced and open financial policies at a much earlier stage while China did begin to open until 1979. The phenomenon of financial deepening becomes apparent at some stage in most developing countries. Across the Taiwan Strait, several observable indicators of financial deepening have become apparent including the ratio of money supply over GNP, the ratio of outsanding bonds over GNP, the ratio of stock market value over GNP, the average number of financial units per person, and the deposit and interest rate spread. With financial deepening more advanced in Taiwan than China, the difference in financial development policy underpins the differences in financial deepening.