中國對西藏獨立態度之研究

Abstract

中共與達賴喇嘛在「西藏獨立」問題上，兩方的互動與未來關係之發展，究竟應該如何解讀、分析、預測，學者專家與新聞媒體莫不見仁見人智，議論紛紛。事實上，「西藏是中國不可分割的一部分」、「西藏是中國的內政問題」、「不談獨立」等的態度，不僅是一九五○到一九八○年的中共政權態度，時至今日，中共仍持此立場，迄今由持續不變。嚴格而言，中共政權對「西藏獨立」或「西藏地位」的態度從未改變過，不過對於西藏的政策及處理西藏問題的態度，則在一九七八年十一屆三中全會後出現了轉變。易言之，在處理西藏問題上也轉趨靈活而較有彈性。值得觀察的是，八○年代末至九○年代以來，達賴喇嘛在公開的說詞上開始轉變為「西藏高度自治」或「西藏人權」，而不再尋求「西藏獨立」。其背景何在?這種口號是否符合實際?達賴喇嘛在國際舞台上的公開主張或建議，其理論根據市什麼?再者，中共如何看待此態度?此外，針對達賴在國際上的宣傳，中共是如何在國際政治舞台上利用其影響力作反制?其效果如何?謂何有該效果的產生?本文的目的在於對北京、台灣、第三世界學者專家所提出的各種觀點與理論，從文獻探討上以多元化的角度來觀察本文主題之不同視野，並詳加闡釋中共與達賴喇嘛互動之間兩者態度與策略上轉趨靈活彈性的因素。換句話說，雙方為何採取與從前不同的路線?其背景與過去有何不同?並且，本文亦將指出共對「西藏地位」的立場上為何其看法與精神是始終一貫的。

Tge issues regarding Tibet’s political status, independence, and future development have been constantly covered by mass and have attracted tremendous scholarly attetion. Howecver, no consesus has been reached regarding the issues. The paper puports to different theories and perspective from scholars and experts in Chima, Taiwan, and other countries. The author also attempts to explain the factors behind China and the Dalai Lama’s shifting strategies. Why did they apply different strategies? What were the environmental changes? The paper also demonstrates why China’s Tibet independence remains intact.The discussion in this paper focuses no two periods from 1950 to 1980s, and from 1989 to 2002. It is a fact that China now controls Tibet and China has received acknoledgement of it from other countries. While gaining the upper hand, China will not discuss the issue of Tibet’s status with Dalai Lama on an equal foothig. For Chian, For China, issues regafding Tibet are internal problems with China’s sovereugnty. Nevetheless, China’s persent coinfidence depends on maintaining its political system and the current leadership must remain stable for at least ten years i. e., This period would allow for the passing of the 14th Dalai Lama and for the next Dalai Lama to mature. If maor changes in the Chinese political system or leadership occur, then China’s current Tibet policies and strategies could completely fail.