中國大陸公共治理與經濟發展之關係

Abstract

本文採用新發展的頻域Granger 因果關係檢定（frequency domain Granger causality test），檢定1996~2013年間，中國大陸的公共治理與其經濟發展之間的因果關係。實證結果顯示，在公共治理的六個指標中，「公民表達與課責」與「防治貪腐」在短期內對實質人均國內生產毛額（Gross Domestic Product, GDP）沒有顯著的影響，但分別經過7.14 年與24.17 年之後，「公民表達與課責」與「防治貪腐」對實質人均GDP 就會呈現顯著的影響。「政府效能」對實質人均GDP 的影響只有在2.74 年內才顯著。「政治穩定與杜統暴力」、「監管品質」以及「法治化程度」則在所有頻率範圍內對實質人均GDP 並沒有顯著的影響效果。此外，中國的實質人均GDP 在所有頻率範圍內對「法治化程度」有顯著的影響。

This study utilizes the frequency domain Granger causality test to examine the causal relationship between six dimensions of governance and economic growth in China using the Worldwide Governance Indicators over the 1996~2013 period. The empirical results show that China`s ＂voice and accountability＂ and ＂control of corruption＂ have no significant impact on real GDP per capita in the short-run. The ＂voice and accountability＂ and ＂control of corruption＂ Granger causes real GDP per capita with a wavelength of more than 7.14 years and 24.1 years, respectively. However, the ＂government effectiveness＂ Granger causes real GDP per capita with a wavelength of less than 2.74 years. As to ＂political stability and absence of violence＂, ＂regulatory quality＂, and ＂rule of law＂, there is no evidence of Granger causality from these three dimensions to real GDP per capita at any frequency. In addition, similar to China`s real GDP per capita, ＂rule of law＂ is significantly affected by the economic growth at all frequencies.