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題名: Testing Partisan Effects on Economic Perceptions: A Panel Design Approach
政黨偏好是否左右經濟評估?定群追蹤之因果效應分析
作者: 黃紀
Huang, Chi
貢獻者: 選舉研究
關鍵詞: partisan effects ;economic perceptions;economic voting;counterfactual model of causal inference;fixed effects panel analysis
政黨偏差效應;經濟評估;經濟投票;反事實因果推論模型;固定效應定群分析
日期: 2018-11
上傳時間: 2019-07-22 14:42:20 (UTC+8)
摘要: The economic voting model has been established as a paradigm for studying electoral accountability based on past economic performances and future prospects. However, objective economic conditions may be a valence issue, and subjective evaluations of the national economy may still be positional. Recent "revisionist" commentators argue that economic voting is "endogenous" in the sense that partisanship strongly affects, if not distorts, voters' perceptions of macroeconomic performance. Different responses have been elicited to this "partisan bias" claim, but few directly address the causal effect of partisanship on economic perceptions. This study examined two competing theories of economic voting through investigating the partisan effects on sociotropic economic perceptions. By designing a narrow-window panel telephone survey conducted before and after the January 2016 presidential election in Taiwan, I constructed a two-way fixed effects (FE) model to test the existence of partisan bias. The estimates provided robust evidence of partisan effects on retrospective and prospective economic assessments. In other words, government party supporters evaluated both past and future economic performance favorably during the pre-election period but became pessimistic after their preferred party lost the election. By contrast, opposition party supporters discredited past economic performances during the government party's rule and expressed optimistic expectations regarding future economic performances after their preferred party won the election. However, the theoretical and methodological conclusions reached in this study extend beyond the single case of Taiwan's 2016 presidential election.
古典經濟投票模型認為選民會回溯及展望經濟之榮枯,對執政者課責。但即使舉國對經濟莫不喜榮厭枯,個別選民對客觀經濟的主觀評估,卻仍可能因其原先政治立場而異。近年經濟投票之修正論者就質疑經濟投票有「內因性」(endogenous),亦即選民對總體經濟的認知其實受其政黨偏好左右,與客觀經濟有差距,產生政黨偏差(partisan bias)。此說已引發許多論辯,但文獻卻鮮少單刀直入,直接檢定政黨偏好對經濟評估之因果效應。本文旨在彌補此一缺憾。本文先就古典派與修正派這兩個針鋒相對的理論,各推導出其預期之經驗意涵:若古典派「無政黨偏差說」為真,則選民對整體經濟的評估,應不會受政黨輪替選舉結果的影響,亦即選前、選後的經濟評估應該大致穩定;反之,若修正派「有政黨偏差說」為真,則選民對整體經濟的評估,應會受政黨輪替選舉結果的影響而前後翻盤。為了檢測這兩種經驗預期,作者針對選前普遍預期會產生政黨輪替的2016年總統大選,設計了選前、選後時間貼近的兩波定群追蹤(panel)電訪,然後以二維固定效果(two-way fixed effects)模型進行定群資料分析,檢定同一群選民之整體經濟評估是否會因自己偏好的政黨勝選或落敗而改變。分析結果與修正論之預期相符,不論是回溯或前瞻之整體經濟評估,都受到政黨偏好的顯著影響。換言之,原國民黨支持者,在2016大選前對過去及未來整體經濟多表肯定,但選後卻因國民黨敗選,對未來經濟走勢改為悲觀。反之,原民進黨的支持者,在選前對過去及未來整體經濟多表負面評價,但選後卻因民進黨勝選,對過去評價更為負面、而對未來經濟則大幅看好。此一研究發現的意涵深遠,應不僅限於台灣2016年大選的個案。
關聯: 選舉研究, 25(2), 89-115
資料類型: article
DOI 連結: https://doi.org/ 10.6612/tjes.201811_25(2).0004
顯示於類別:[選舉研究 TSSCI] 期刊論文

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