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China’s Role as a Third-Party Mediator in Myanmar’s Peace Process
|Issue Date:||2019-08-07 17:06:19 (UTC+8)|
|Abstract:||自從緬甸總統登盛上任後，開始制定一份包容各方的「全國停火協議」，世界各國際機構與聯合國也堅定不移地加入支持緬甸的和平。然而，五年過後，花費了數百萬美元的捐助資金，目前21個民族地方武裝團體卻只有10個同意簽署加入，翁山蘇姬與全國民主聯盟領導的和平進程似乎幾近於失敗了。與此同時，相較於大多數國際機構逐漸消失的影響力，中國在緬甸和平進程中的第三方協調角色，卻愈見突出。本研究試圖利用現實主義與中國在緬甸所佈局的地緣政治與經濟戰略，其中涵蓋中國南部邊境的和平穩定考量等關鍵議題，分析何以中國能在緬甸和平進程中扮演如此成功的第三方協調角色。相較於其他國際機構與聯合國的協調失靈，中國採用多層級的參與策略，針對利害關係人甚至緬甸一般民眾，展現其在緬甸和平進程中的突出影響力。本研究同時利用“局內人－偏袒模型” （Insider-Partial Model）與“局外人－中立模型” （Outsider-Neutral Model）來分析中國在緬甸所發揮的第三方協調角色。本研究發現，由於中國與緬甸長久以來的歷史、文化與經濟連結，以及中國西南邊境與各民族地方武裝團體長期關係，使得中國扮演著局內人－偏袒的協調者角色。事實上，中國在緬甸和平進程中扮演一個獨特的角色，它是部分協調和部分利害相關人的角色，它視自己的利益優先於解決緬甸70年來的國內衝突。在本研究完成之時，中國仍尚未成功地說服大多數地方武裝團體簽署停火協議。|
Since the beginning of Thein Sein’s ambitious plan to create an all-inclusive National Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), the international community and the United Nations has been steadfast in its support for peace in Myanmar. Now, five years later, with millions of dollars of donor money spent, only 10 of the current 21 ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) signing the NCA. The peace process lead by Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD appears to have all but failed. Meanwhile, the international community has seemingly withered into the background as China assumed the leading role as a third-party mediator in Myanmar’s peace process. This study looks at why has China been successful at filling the role of a third-party mediator in Myanmar’s peace process by examining Beijing’s geopolitical, geostrategic, domestic, and economic strategies in Myanmar, including China’s need to see stability along its southern border. China’s use of a multi-layered engagement strategy that targets not just stakeholders but the civilian population of Myanmar, has made China’s influence in the peace process more salient than that of international community and the UN. Furthermore, this study investigates the two leading mediation models the “Insider-Partial Model” and the “Outsider-Neutral Model” to understand what kind of mediator China is and which role China inhabits. The findings suggest China fits the “Insider-Partial Model” due to historical, cultural, and economic linkages with Myanmar, as well as China’s long-standing relationship with the EAOs along its southern border. In fact, China inhabits a unique role that is part mediator and part stakeholder, who own self-interests seem to take precedence over solving 70 years of intra-state conflict in Myanmar. At the time this study was written, China still has yet to successful bring the non-signatories closer to signing the NCA.
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