Forecasting Financial Indicators and Providing an Effective Selection Method for Suppliers

Abstract

The backlight module industry is the upstream of the thin-film-transistor liquid-crystal-display (TFT-LCD) manufacturing. The industry in Taiwan is currently facing a tough competition. This study tries to provide an effective selection method for suppliers by combining the grey prediction, data envelopment analysis (DEA) and heuristic technique. The model starts from DEA concept to find inputs and outputs, and then employs the grey prediction to predict the inputs and outputs which are based on the historic data. The analysis includes DEA to measure the operation efficiency. One of the backlight module companies is chosen to be the target company A. Eight major listed TFT-LCD companies in Taiwan were selected as alternatives for partner selection. The empirical results show that some of eight companies who have better operation efficiency may result in poor efficiency afterwards. Contrarily, some companies with poor operation efficiency have chance to get better. The proposed method can provide good advices for partners’ selection.