評估一帶一路倡議對中國 — 東協經濟關係之影響

Abstract

近年來中國政府推行具中國特色的「一帶一路」，並試圖拉近與鄰邦的距離，進而提升中國在區域之領導地位。本文探討「一帶一路」的推動對中國和東協國家之間的經濟關係的影響，主要回答兩個問題：第一，「一帶一路」在東協國家推動之實際情形為何；第二，「一帶一路」在東協國家之推動在何種程度上取代美國在該處的經濟地位。本文分析關於「一帶一路」的各種正、負面觀點和經驗資料，並且發現：第一，整體而言，中國在東協的投資在促進中國與東協國家的雙邊經濟關係上，僅在某些國家，如越南及菲律賓取得明顯的進展；第二，中國的投資截至目前為止並未明顯取代美國在東協國家的經濟地位。

In late 2013, the Chinese government has launched a regional economic cooperation strategy ― the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which is featured by its Chinese historical linkage, attempting to shorten the distance with neighboring countries and thus enhance China’s leading position in South East Asia. In this research, the author tries to answer two major questions: First, what is the progress of the promotion of BRI in South East Asia? Second, to what extent is the promotion of BRI in Southeast Asia to replace the United States’ economic status in Southeast Asia.\nThis article analyzes debates of positive and negative perspectives and empirical data on the Maritime Silk Road Initiative, and finds that: First, in general, Chinese investment in ASEAN is to promote bilateral economic relations between China and Southeast Asia in certain aspects, making significant progress merely in some countries, such as Vietnam and Philippines. Second, China’s investment so far has not significantly replaced the United States in the ASEAN countries.