霸權國家與核武發展：論東北亞的安全情勢

Abstract

美國總統川普上任後，對於北韓核武問題採取「極限壓力與交 往」政策，透過軍事嚇阻與經濟制裁為壓力、經濟援助為誘因，並不 排除與北韓領導人金正恩直接對話，以試圖改變北韓的行為。美國與 北韓至今已進行兩次川金會，有助緩和東北亞安全困境。美國作為核 武霸權，必須妥適應對事實擁核的北韓，否則可能影響其自身的霸權 地位。然而，朝鮮半島最終能否無核化，仍取決於美國與北韓的互 動，以及其他行為者如何因應局勢變化。

The U.S. policy toward North Korea has shifted to ＂Maximum Pressure and Engagement＂ since Donald Trump inaugurated as the president, in which military deterrence and economic sanctions, together with diplomatic engagement, are expected to shape North Korea`s truculent behavior. Trump`s meetings with Kim Jong-un in June 2018 and February 2019 indicated that both sides agreed to arrest the downward spiral in the security dilemma that could lead to the break of war in the Korean Peninsula. And yet, the degree to which Kim is willing to deliver his commitments on denuclearization, if any, is essential to peace and stability in the Northeast Asia region. The U.S. as a nuclear hegemon is obliged to respond to a nuclear North Korea with a capability to threaten its security and hegemonic status. In addition, how other players perceive the policy shift on the U.S. side also plays a significant role in shaping what they want in the years to come. Nevertheless, while peace remains unclear to most countries in this region, the occurrence of war seems less likely at present.