中國大陸「21世紀海上絲綢之路」戰略意涵：東協國家之視角

Abstract

一帶一路倡議是中國大陸全球治理的「術」與「道」，以地緣政治與地緣經濟為「術」，達全球治理之「道」，透由推動「絲綢之路經濟帶」與「21世紀海上絲綢之路」倡議，期達成政策溝通、設施聯通、貿易暢通、資金融通、民心相通等五通目標，構建人類命運共同體，實現「中國化之全球化」戰略布局。\n本文以地緣政治、地緣經濟、結構主義及複合相互依賴理論等研究途徑，除分析中國大陸「海上絲綢之路」經略東南亞之戰略意涵、東南亞10國對「海上絲綢之路」的認知、回應與期待，並深入剖析「海上絲綢之路」與南海爭端之關係與影響。\n此外，美國、日本及印度等國對「海上絲綢之路」的回應，勢必影響該倡議之推動與實踐，故本文針對美、日、印三大國對「海上絲綢之路」之回應與干涉進行研究，研析此三大國對「海上絲綢之路」印太區域之戰略部署，所採取之具體反制與因應作為。

This thesis utilizes geopolitical, geo-economic, constructivism, and complex interdependence approaches to analyze China’s Maritime Silk Road (MSRI) geostrategic implications in the Southeast Asia region. Besides, the framework of this thesis is to systematically analyze the South China Sea claimants’ and non-claimants’ perceptions, responses, and expectations to China’s MSRI program, which is an important research foundation to probe into the Maritime Silk Road connections and effects on South China Sea tension. This thesis analyzes Southeast Asia countries’ official documents, think tank reports, and local newspapers from 2013 to 2019 and groups ASEAN countries’ perceptions of MSRI into three categories of opportunities, challenges, and threats. Lao and Cambodia consider MSRI as an opportunity to reinforce the domestic economy and improve regional connectivity. Vietnam and Myanmar consider that the MSRI threatens their national security and sovereignty. The other ASEAN countries, the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia view the MSRI half for opportunity and half for threat. Besides, this thesis categorizes ASEAN countries’ responses to China’s MSRI program into four types that opposed to approval, conservative and prudent, openness but discreet, and friendly and embracing responses. Furthermore, this author examines the United States, Japan, and India’s responses and interventions of China’s MSRI strategy in the Southeast Asia region.