中美印太權力競逐與澳洲的回應： 戰略三角的分析(2013-2019)

Abstract

澳洲於第二次世界大戰結束後，由當時的外交部長Herbert V. Evatt在美國舊金山舉行的聯合國制憲會議(The San Francisco Conference)上，首次提出了「中型強權外交」(middle power diplomacy)概念；Kevin Rudd擔任總理時，主張澳洲在國際事務上應採取「中型強權外交」，除了追求澳洲的經濟和安全利益、在國際事務上發揮積極作用之外，在面對強權崛起時也要能夠堅持自己的立場。澳洲身為亞太地區重要的中型強權，自二次世界大戰以來即與美國保持緊密的盟友關係，亦在所處的南太平洋地區扮演領導地位，協助美國維持亞太地區的區域安全以及美國的主導優勢。然而，近年來美中兩國在亞太區域日益激烈的權力競逐，以及川普政府外交政策的不確定性，引發了澳洲的不安全感；另一方面，中國的銳實力對澳洲在內政與外交上的滲透也為澳中關係帶來諸多的不確定性。本文主要研究兩個個案，分別是澳中與澳美關係。 研究時間分為兩個時段：第一時段，是2013年習近平擔任中國國家主席至2017年川普就任美國總統之前；第二時段，是2017年川普就任美國總統迄今。並以Lowell Dittmer的「戰略三角」作為本文的分析架構，研究澳洲與中國、澳洲與美國兩個個案的三角關係。 第一個時段，2013年至2017年澳洲與中國、澳洲與美國的三角關係為「羅曼蒂克型」：澳洲為樞紐、中美兩國均為側翼。澳洲在「安全靠美國、經濟靠中國」的原則指導下，採取「避險」策略，同時與中國及美國保持友好關係，均為正利得，而中美兩國處於「權力移轉」狀態下，中國極可能挑戰美國的霸權領導地位假設下，兩國處於既競爭又合作的競合關係。 第二個時段，2017年迄今的澳洲與中國、澳洲與美國的三角關係，由於中國同時與美國發生貿易戰、南海自由航行權、美軍派遣軍機及軍艦穿越台灣海峽等爭端，以及澳洲在前總理Malcolm Turnbull任內通過「反外國干預法」、情報組織指出，中國疑似涉嫌以駭客攻擊澳洲政府、各政黨及大學與研究單位網路系統等，使得澳中兩國關係摩擦不斷，形成「結婚型」的美中澳戰略三角關係：亦即，三方之中有兩方（美、澳）維持雙邊友好關係，同時與第三方（中）交惡。 本文提出6個M型化指標分析中國銳實力對澳洲的滲透，隨著中國綜合國力的持續增長，中國政府可以運用的工具也越趨多元化，其策略並非一成不變，可以通過對當時形勢的判斷，提出適當的戰略和策略，保持高度的靈活性，以完成目標。

When the UN Constitutional Convention was held in San Francisco at the end of the Second World War, Australia for the first time proposed a “Middle Power Diplomacy” concept by the then foreign minister Herbert V. Evatt. Later, when Kevin Rudd became prime minister, he advocated that Australia should take a "Middle Power Diplomacy" in international affairs, to pursue Australia`s economic and security interests and play an active role in the international affairs. In the face of rising powers Australia must be able to adhere to its own position. As an important middle power in the Asia-Pacific region, Australia has maintained close relations with the US since World War II. It also plays a leading role in the South Pacific region, helping the US maintain regional security in the Asia-Pacific region. However, in recent years, the US and China have been increasingly competing for power in the Asia-Pacific region. The uncertainty of the Trump administration’s foreign policy has triggered a sense of insecurity in Australia. On the other hand, China’s sharp power to Australia’s domestic and foreign affairs has also brought a lot of uncertainty to the Australia-China relationship. This article focuses on two cases, namely the relationship between Australia and China and Australia and the US. This doctoral thesis is divided into two periods: the first period is from Xi Jinping coming to power in China in 2013 till the time just before Donald Trump became the president of the United States in 2017; the second period is in the Trump’s presidency to date. Also Lowell Dittmer`s "strategic triangle" is applied as the analysis architecture to research the relationship triangle between Australia and China, Australia and the United States in two separate cases. During the first period between 2013 and 2017, the relationships between Australia and China, Australia and the U.S. are “the romantic triangle” -- Australia is the “pivot player” while China and U.S. are the “wing players”. Through hedging strategies, Australia has relied upon the US-Australia alliance for its national security and relied upon China for economic development. Therefore, Australia maintains friendly relations with China and the US simultaneously. After the first period, the relationships between Australia and China, Australia and the US from 2017 to date are “the marriage triangle”. While the US-China Trade War is escalating, the U.S. Air Force and Navy airplanes and guided missile destroyer conducts “Freedom of Navigation’’ in the South China Sea where islands were claimed by China. During the premiership of the former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, Australia`s parliament passed new laws ‘Anti-interference Laws’ aimed at preventing foreign interference in politics in their country. This thesis proposes 6 M-shape indicators to analyze the penetration of China`s sharp power into Australia. As China`s overall national strength continues to grow, the tools available to the Chinese government are becoming more diverse. It can take appropriate strategies and tactics by judging the situation at that time to complete the goal.