地緣政治與冷戰後中共周邊外交：中亞與南海的案例研究

Abstract

冷戰後，國際權力格局產生劇烈轉變。隨蘇聯瓦解，也提供中共於國際環境崛起成結構中「一極」的契機。中共是全世界鄰國最多的國家，迫切面對諸多複雜的周邊問題與挑戰。在國際關係理論中，結構現實主義（structural realism）首先以國際體系分析國家對外決策，並帶入「系統」（system）和「結構」（structure）的概念為國際政治描繪出清晰的輪廓。然而，本文歸納出地緣政治理論「結構性」和「物質性」的特徵，並呈現以「陸權」（land power）與「海權」（sea power）為主的二分思維本質，依此，身為當今全球唯一兼具陸海條件的大國，兩者對中共地緣政治來說同等重要。 因此，本文在「全球與區域」的理論層次下，解釋冷戰後隨中共國力的快速提升，於國際權力分配中佔據優勢地位，進而逐漸發揮地緣影響力以擴展周邊外交。對於周邊地區，中共優先採取「睦鄰友好、以鄰為善」的互動原則，並積極與鄰國發展雙邊關係以實行地緣策略佈局。依地緣政治的陸權、海權和邊緣地帶等概念，「中亞」（Central Asia）和「南海」（South China Sea）各自牽涉最多周邊國家，同時也觸及中共核心國家利益，是冷戰後中共周邊外交最具代表性的兩個案例。本文研究結果顯示，在外交層面，中共皆有與陸權和海權周邊國家建立多邊或雙邊對話機制；在經貿層面，不管是陸權還是海權的周邊國家也積極與中共建立貿易夥伴關係。但隨權力填補之需求、建立外交合作機制的時機、主要大國是否納入合作機制、美國外交盟友分佈的多寡和對邊界安全的隱憂程度等差異，中共在冷戰結束至今的陸權周邊外交案例中傾向合作；在海權周邊外交案例中傾向衝突。

After the end of Cold War, the international power structure has undergone dramatic changes. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, China has an opportunity to rise as one pole in the structure of the international environment. With the largest number of contiguous countries, China has to face many complicated geopolitical issues and challenges. Structural realism first analyzes the country’s external decision-making in an international system, and brings the concepts of system and structure to a clear outline for international politics. In addition, this study classifies the structural and material characteristics of geopolitical theory, it presents the essence of dichotomy thinking of land power and sea power. Also, China is the only rising power with both land and sea geo-conditions in the world today. This study argues that following the rapid rise of the China’s power after the end of Cold War, it has an advantageous position from the power distribution of the world, and then gradually exerts its geographical influence to expand its peripheral diplomacy. In 1990s, China declared that it would firmly follow the path of peaceful development and the policy of building friendship and partnership with neighboring countries to create an amicable, secure and prosperous neighborhood. Central Asia and South China Sea are the two most representative cases of China’s peripheral diplomacy, each involves the most number of surrounding countries, and also touches the core national interests. In the diplomatic dimension, China has established multilateral or bilateral dialogue mechanisms with surrounding countries in both of these cases. In the economic and trade dimension, all of the neighboring countries have actively established trade partnerships with China. To sum up, with the factors of power-filling in that area, the timing of establishing diplomatic cooperation mechanisms, major powers in cooperation mechanism, the U.S. diplomatic allies and border security, China tends to cooperate in the case of land-power and tends to conflict in the sea ones since the end of the Cold War.