ICO成功因素之探討

Abstract

ICO（Initial Coin Offerings）即首次代幣發行，是一種基於區塊鏈技術的募資方式，企業通過發行新的代幣來換取主流加密代幣或法定貨幣進行募資。ICO概念在2013年首次被提出，直到2017年以太坊智能合約的應用，ICO才開始迅速發展。\n然而目前ICO仍存在缺乏法律監管的問題，加上投資者對於這種新型募資方式了解甚少，以致於許多不法分子利用ICO來詐騙投資者。本文根據文獻，將代幣的可交易性確立為ICO成功的標準，研究目的是探討影響ICO成功的因素，使投資者在投資ICO項目前可以根據這些因素，預先判斷ICO成功的概率，從而降低被欺詐的風險。\n本文收集了2019年4月1日到2019年12月31日之間世界各國發起的454個ICO項目，其中只有154個成功。根據ICO官網發布的信息，探討了14個跟ICO比較有關的變量。本研究實證結果發現了與ICO成功呈顯著正面影響的因素有：項目在Github上發布代碼、在Telegram建立溝通平台、接受法定貨幣的投資、具有紅利結構以及擁有越大的團隊規模；與ICO成功呈顯著負面影響的因素有：最小投資額限制、預銷售階段（發生在ICO之前的銷售）以及發售代幣的百分比越多（團隊保留的代幣比例越少）。

ICO (Initial Coin Offerings) is a fundraising method based on blockchain technology. Companies issue new tokens in exchange for mainstream encrypted tokens or legal tender for fundraising. The concept of ICO was first proposed in 2013, and it was not until the application of the Ethereum smart contract in 2017 that ICO began to develop rapidly.\nHowever, there is still a lack of legal supervision of ICOs, and investors know little about this new type of fundraising, so many criminals use ICO to defraud investors. Based on the literature, this article establishes the tradability of tokens as the standard for ICO success. The purpose of the research is to explore the factors that affect the success of ICO, so that investors can prejudge the probability of ICO success based on these factors before investing in ICO projects, thereby reducing risk of fraud.\nThis article collected 454 ICO projects initiated by countries around the world from April 1, 2019 to December 31, 2019, of which only 154 were successful. According to the information published on the ICO official website, 14 variables related to ICO comparison were discussed. The empirical results of this research found that the factors that have a significant positive impact on the success of ICO are: projects publish codes on Github, establish communication platforms on Telegram, accept investment in fiat currency, have a dividend structure and have a larger team size; and the factors that have a significant negative impact on success of ICO are: minimum investment limit, presale stage (sales that occur before ICO), and the greater the percentage of tokens sold (the less the percentage of tokens reserved by the team).