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Electronic Payments and Money Demand in China
|Issue Date:||2020-09-02 12:47:29 (UTC+8)|
|Abstract:||本文將電子支付作為一個新變數加入到貨幣需求函數之中，並使用自我迴歸分配遞延（Autoregressive Distributed Lag, ARDL）邊界檢定方法探討中國的電子支付與貨幣需求之間的關係。實證結果顯示，貨幣需求函數之中的各變數之間存在共整合關係，電子支付變數與貨幣需求之間為負相關，長期而言，電子支付變數每增加1%，對M1的需求就將減少約0.02%；遞歸殘差累計加總（CUSUM）檢定以及遞歸殘差平方累計加總（CUSUMSQ）檢定也顯示加入電子支付變數後的貨幣需求函數是穩定的。此外，根據預測結果評估，加入電子支付變數之貨幣需求函數的預測準確度要優於不包含電子支付變數的貨幣需求函數。|
This paper adds an electronic payments variable to the money demand function, and uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to study the relationship between the electronic payments and money demand in China. The empirical results show that there is a cointegration relationship among the variables in the money demand function, and the e-payment variable is negatively correlated with the demand for money. According to the findings of this paper, in the long run, for per 1% increase in the e-payment variable, the demand for M1 will decrease by approximately 0.02%. In this paper, by performing the cumulative sum of recursive residuals (CUSUM) and the cumulative sum of squares of recursive residuals (CUSUMSQ) tests, we find that the money demand function including the e-payment variable is stable. In addition, the money demand function that includes the e-payment variable performs better than the one that does not include the e-payment variable when carrying out the forecast evaluation.
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