中國汽車限購政策在不同城市間對消費者購車行為之影響

Abstract

中國城市車輛增加速度過快及國人汽車保有量逐年增加，導致國內車輛飽和度過高，為解決城市汽車過度飽和造成交通堵塞、空氣污染等問題，中國各地方政府陸續發布汽車限購政策，希望藉此緩和城市汽車增長速度，並減緩其負面影響。\n自1994年起至2018年止，中國計有9個城市實施汽車限購政策，藉由提高購車難度，抑制汽車總量增加，爰本研究旨在探討不同城市實施汽車限購政策，限制消費者購車自由，是否影響其購車行為。就北京、貴陽、天津及杭州4個城市在政策實施後，車輛銷售平均價格、平均排氣量及自主品牌市占率的變化，來了解消費者購車行為的轉變，並採用雙重差異法（DID）估計此變化與限購政策實施之關聯性。\n研究結果顯示，北京、貴陽、天津及杭州實施汽車限購政策後，在車輛平均排氣量方面無明顯變化；但研究證實在各城市實施限購政策後，可以得知消費者較偏好購買外國品牌車輛，導致自主品牌車輛市占率下降，連帶提升購車平均價格，此結果可能衝擊中國在地汽車產業發展，值得中國借鏡。

Since the rate of car ownership and the number of vehicles in China cities are tremendously increasing, the number of vehicles is soaring to an unprecedented high level. To deal with these oversaturated vehicles, traffic problems, and air pollution, from 1994 to 2018, nine local governments have enacted some policies and regulations such as vehicle quota systems to restrain the car growth rate. This study will discuss how different cities implement these kinds of policies, and how these policies affect citizen’s intentions and behavior after causing some inconveniences.\nFor example, the governments of Beijing, Guiyang, Tianjin, and Hangzhou utilize the Difference in Differences (DID) and the change of the average of cars’ price, engine displacement, and market share of indigenous brands in these cities to estimate how these policies impact consumers and its relevance.\nThe study shows that the engine displacement in these nine cities does not have a significant increase after the policies implemented. However, it demonstrates the consumers are more likely to prefer foreign brands and the market share of indigenous brands are facing inevitable shrinking and indirectly push the average car price.\nAs a result, these policies might impact the development of indigenous brands and should be in retrospect carefully what its challenge in the future.