政治貪腐與歐盟東擴

Abstract

歐盟東擴涉及非常廣泛的議題。申請國除了要符合必要的制度性要求外，為何有些申請國比其他國家更有機會成為歐盟會員國？先前的研究主要從經濟因素、民主體制與文化因素進行探討。然而，目前從貪腐的角度來研究加入歐盟可能性之相關文獻並不多見。本論文主張，在歐盟第五次擴大之後（2004-2007），歐盟在決定是否給予申請國會籍或候選資格時，會更傾向將申請國的貪腐程度納入考量。具體而言，本論文假設「申請國貪腐程度愈高，會降低加入歐盟的可能性，而這個降低的效應在2007年之後比在2008年之前來得更強」。本論文利用19個歐洲國家自1990年到2018年的數據資料進行量化分析，實證結果支持本文假設。同時，本文對於克羅埃西亞與科索沃所作的比較案例研究，亦顯示貪腐對於加入歐盟可能性的影響。總體而言，本論文試圖為歐盟政治的文獻提供補充觀點，同時也為有意加入歐盟的國家提供政策啟發。

The enlargement of the European Union (EU) entails a vast range of issues. In addition to necessary institutional requirements, why are some countries more likely to become EU members than others? While previous studies have mainly focused on the role of economic factors, democratic regime, and cultural identity, few studies examine how levels of corruption affect the probability of EU accession. This thesis contends that the level of corruption is a crucial factor for the EU to consider an applicant country’s qualification for obtaining the candidacy status or the membership of the EU after the fifth enlargement (2004-2007). Specifically, I hypothesize that a higher level of corruption tends to reduce the probability of joining the EU, and such a reduction effect is stronger after 2007, compared to the effect before 2008. Using data for 19 European countries from 1990 to 2018, my quantitative analysis supports my hypothesis. The comparative case studies of Croatia and Kosovo further illustrates the impact of corruption on the prospect of joining the EU. Overall, this thesis aims to fill the gap in the literature of European Union politics and provide policy implications for countries that intend to apply for EU membership.