Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/131970
題名: 估計脫歐公投對英國經濟的影響:來自合成控制法的證據
Estimating Brexit-effects on UK’s economic growth: A synthetic control approach
作者: 羅曼斯
Roggmann, Matthias
貢獻者: 楊子霆
Yang, Tzu-Ting
羅曼斯
Matthias Roggmann
關鍵詞: 英國脫歐
英國
歐洲聯盟
合成控制法
經濟增長
國內生產總值
Brexit
UK
EU
Synthetic control method
Economic growth
GDP
日期: 2020
上傳時間: 2-Sep-2020
摘要: This paper analyzes if the decision by the British electorate to leave the European Union had causal\neffects on the UK’s economic growth, in particular on the UK’s GDP growth rate as well as the growth rate of different economic sectors. By assuming that Brexit fulfils the conditions of a natural experiment, the synthetic control method is applied, which compares the British GDP growth with a weighted average of countries with similar GDP growth over time. Results imply that Brexit\ncaused losses in accumulated GDP growth between 5.64% and 8.11% by the end of 2019. A decomposition into individual economic sectors could show, that this output gap is largely caused by a 21.45% loss within the financial and insurance activities. The results hold valid for several\nsensitivity and robustness checks and are in accordance with economic theory as well as previous empirical findings. Thereby, this paper contributes to the academic literature by quantifying post-Brexit effects for the British economy and by delivering further evidence about the disadvantages of leaving international trade agreements.
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描述: 碩士
國立政治大學
應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
107266008
資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107266008
資料類型: thesis
Appears in Collections:學位論文

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