影響警察鎮壓聚衆活動因素之研究

Abstract

理論上警察屬於基層官僚，除了聽命執行任務、能創制決策之外，還擁有合法武裝，其行政行為對於民主政治具有重大意義，特別是其與聚眾活動之互動。本研究試圖處理幾個問題，第一，我國聚眾活動運作之概況；第二，警察強制鎮壓行為之內容；以及第三，警察強制鎮壓行為與聚眾活動之互動關係。國內較少利用大樣本及量化技術探討警察處理聚眾活動之研究，而本研究以基層官僚理論及威脅途徑為立論基礎，以二手分析法取材大量新聞報導資料，使用邏輯迴歸分析所得數據。結果顯示，2005至2013年間3,088件聚眾活動事件樣貌，以發生於臺北市為大宗、多數有組織參與其中；各式群眾暴力行為出現比率大多不到一成，而言語暴力、製造聲響行為達到三成；極少案例有人受傷，無人死亡。警察強制鎮壓行為以警告群眾、清淨現場為主；較少攻擊、破壞、或處罰之行為。最後，當抗議者可能危及抗議對象高層的人身安全或出現暴力行為時，將增強警察使用強制鎮壓行為的可能性。

In theory, members of the police force act as street-level bureaucrats. They implement, make decisions, and use weapons while performing their duties. It is very important to think about the meaning of police administrative behavior in democratic politics, and in particular the interaction between the police force and protests. This study attempts to understand protest outlines, the content of police repression, and the interaction between police repression and protests. Few domestic studies have examined the police`s handling of protests that made use of big samples and quantitative analyses. This study is based on street-level bureaucracy theory and threat approach studies for designing variables, collects and processes huge amounts of newspaper coverage, and then does secondary analysis and logistic regression. The main results are as follows: First, major cases took place in Taipei City and major cases had one or more organizations involved in 3,088 protest event cases from 2005 to 2013. Many kinds of mass violent behavior appeared in fewer than 10% of the cases. But disputes and noise-creating behavior occurred in more than 30% of the cases. Few persons were hurt and no one died. Second, members of the police preferred to warn the persons against taking part in protest activities or preferred to leave nobody in the protest fields rather than implement actions of attack, destruction, or punishment on the protesters. Lastly, the police are likely to implement repressive measures against protests if the masses encounter the protest objects or engage in violent behavior.