Political Economy of Asia: A case of China in 2019 Hong Kong Incident

Abstract

Current Hong Kong incident has developed with the 30^(th) Anniversary of Tiananmen Incident and a bill proposal regarding extradition in June, 2019. Ceaseless demonstrations look beyond the capability of authorities in Honk Kong. Beijing regime leaks the possibility of physical intervention to the Hong Kong incident. Global opinions busy to discuss and predict if Beijing crack down with forces or not. Both sides, which bets to the peaceful resolution and forecasts another 6.4 Tiananmen tragedy, have their own plausible reason. Of course, the possibility of the intervention is half and half. This paper delves the criteria of decision-makers` would-be conclusion in Beijing, and the impact of the decision in Asian political economy, using the politico-economic linkage model. Beijing would use military forces to repress the Hong Kong demonstration when the CCP leadership regards it as a critical challenge to the CCP regime in Beijing. Recent media reports are getting to put more weigh on the military intervention. At least Beijing informally intervenes by strengthening the capability of Hong Kong police with diverse ways. No need to directly crack down like previous 1989 Tiananmen Scare incident unless the protesters abruptly turn to brutal violators overthrowing fundamental order of Hong Kong or defying against Beijing`s ruling Communist Party.

2019年的香港反對逃犯條例修訂草案事件適逢天安門事件卅週年。示威情況看來已超越港府的能力。北京中央政府傳出武力干預的可能性。全球輿論熱烈討論北京是否會武力鎮壓。認為六四天安門事件可能重演的與相信終將和平解決的兩派勢力堪稱五五波。本文主旨在應用國際關係的政經關連（politico-economic linkage model）的模型來剖析北京決策者的決策制訂標準及其對亞洲政治經濟的衝擊。當北京當局認為香港反送中示威對中國共產黨（CCP）的政權構成挑戰時將會使用武力鎮壓示威。最近的媒體報導越來越聚焦於軍事干預的可能性。至少北京已運用各種非正式介入的方式強化了香港警察的能力。因此，沒有必要進行像1989年天安門事件一樣的武力鎮壓，除非示威者突然轉向暴力，並試圖推翻香港的基本法治秩序或公開反對北京的中共當局。