結構性限制：安倍內閣安全戰略下的臺日關係

Abstract

安倍首相定調《美日防衛合作指針》修訂，完成防衛法制相關修法，「脫戰後」的日本在「美日同盟」架構下，擴大其在國際政治中的安全角色，但不意味日本在對臺政策上將解構「七二年體制」。囿於日中臺三方互動模式的限制，日方在發展臺日關係之際必觀望日中關係、兩岸關係的發展。本文發現當日中關係處於低點、兩岸關係穩定的情況下，臺日關係最可能有實質的進展。本文首先回顧臺日關係的文獻及介紹本文將採的分析架構；第二部分則將整理出日本近年如何在安全戰略追求新角色；第三部分則論析何種日中關係、兩岸關係最利於發展臺日關係。最後探究「七二年體制」是否有鬆綁的可能。

Prime Minister Abe has finished amending The Guidelines for U.S-Japan Defense Cooperation, as well as completed the legislation of defense laws. The ＂de-postwar＂ Japan, based on the framework of ＂U.S.-Japan alliance,＂ will play greater security roles in international politics; however, this does not mean Japan will de-construct the ＂1972 system,＂ a foundation in which Japan, China, and Taiwan all construct and restrain their interaction rules and patterns. Therefore, the ups and downs of the Sino-Japanese relations and Cross-Strait relations still restrict the development of Taiwan-Japan relations. This paper finds that when the Sino-Japanese relations mire in tension and the Cross-Strait relations remain stable, Taiwan and Japan are more likely to achieve substantial development. This article first provides a literature review on Taiwan-Japan relations and introduces analytical framework. Then it investigates how Japan pursue its new role through revising its security strategy. Emphasizing the restrictions in Taiwan-Japan-China interaction pattern, the third part analyzes how the changes in Sino-Japanese and Cross-Strait relations in Abe administration facilitate or refrain the development of Taiwan-Japan relations. The last part discusses the possibility of de-constructing the ＂1972 system.＂