Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/132726
題名: 候選人臉書經營和選舉結果之關聯分析:以2016年區域立法委員選舉為例
Taiwan 2016: How Political Candidates` Adoption of Facebook Fan Pages and Interaction with Supporters Relate to Election Outcomes
作者: 莊伯仲
Chuang, Po-chung
金志聿
Chin, Chih-yu
貢獻者: 選舉研究
關鍵詞: 立委選舉  ;  社群媒體  ;  按讚  ;  臉書  ;  網路選戰 
legislator election  ;  social media  ;  Facebook likes  ;  fan page  ;  online campaign
日期: May-2019
上傳時間: 19-Nov-2020
摘要: 隨著社群媒體融入吾人生活,成為粉絲、按讚這類網路行為已被證實與實體行動間存在關聯,因此透過候選人臉書的大數據來預測選舉結果,便成為新興研究主題。本文分析2016年區域立委選舉中354位候選人的粉絲專頁經營狀況,發現是否運用臉書與選舉勝敗有顯著關聯,實質經營者36.8%當選立委,無臉書或未實質經營者則僅1.2%。更重要的是,候選人的貼文按讚總數與得票數呈現低度正相關,註冊粉絲數與得票數更達中度正相關,因此兩者均可據以探討勝選關聯性。而本研究建構一初步模型「淨粉絲對比率」,整合候選人按讚數與粉絲數,並排除與同選區對手的無意義重疊粉絲和重複按讚,具有一定推估能力,對全國當選席位的預估準確率有81.5%(72席中59席),在六都更達87.9%(48席中42席)。而這也意味臉書選戰的重要性,以及專業經營的必要性。
The adoption of social media in political marketing has grown dramatically over the past ten years, as it creates two-way communication that stimulates and fosters candidates` relationships with voters. However, can the count of "supporters" and "likes" recorded on the Facebook page of a candidate predict whether he/she will win the elections or not? In view of this, predicting an electoral outcome using "big" social media data is a new research topic that has emerged due to the exponential growth of social media. This study examines the extent to which political candidates` use of Facebook fan pages and interaction with their supporters are related to the election outcomes (vote share and election success) of Taiwan`s 2016 legislator election campaign. Facebook data were acquired for all 354 candidates. The findings indicate: a candidate`s Facebook presence is related to his/her election outcomes. Positive correlations were also observed to exist between the numbers of supporters/likes candidates secured on their official fan pages and their popular vote share. Moreover, the "net-fans ratio" preliminary model, based on a candidate`s likes/supporters and excluding those repeated with respective opponents, has an explanatory power to forecast regional legislators` election outcome with 81.5% accuracy of all the seats, and with 87.9% accuracy of the seats of 6 major municipalities. Hence, Facebook data could be a significant indicator of electoral success.
關聯: 選舉研究, 26(1), 89-121
資料類型: article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.6612/tjes.201905_26(1).0004
Appears in Collections:期刊論文

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