影響壽險業房貸違約因素之研究

Abstract

本文以壽險業保戶為研究對象，採用公報之違約定義，探討過去研究房貸違約顯著因素在新違約定義下之顯著性；另增加壽險契約效力相關變數，以了解壽險契約效力對房貸違約行為的影響。採用羅吉特迴歸模型進行實證分析，結果發現一般影響銀行房貸違約因素在新違約定義下對於保戶房貸依然顯著外，壽險契約的停效或終止亦對房貸違約有顯著影響，此發現可做為壽險業房貸業務之預警指標，除有助於壽險業之資金運用外，亦可強化其風險控管能力。此外，壽險業可基於都會區與非都會區或各擔保品分區間不同的違約因素顯著性，採取差異化的徵信措施。

To cope with the ＂default＂ regulation in the Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 34 (FAS 34), this study analyzes the significance of variables on residential mortgage default in the life insurance industry. We introduce variables associated with contract effectiveness to explore the impact of the termination of life insurance contracts on mortgage default. The empirical results from the logistic regression model indicate that the status of life insurance contracts, together with previous significant variables on mortgage default from the banking industry, are significant in determining the default behavior. We conclude that signals from the suspension or termination of life insurance contracts can serve as leading indicators for default on the mortgage loan portfolio in the life insurance industry. Furthermore, the life insurance industry could differentiate credit ratings between urban and rural areas or among different collateral regions according to various significant determinants.