安倍外交政策研究：美日同盟下的對中、俄外交

Abstract

第二次安倍政權自2012年底誕生以來，至2020年9月16日正式請辭為止，連續執政共計2,822日，若計入第一次安倍政權的話，則共計執政3,188日，不論是連續執政或是共計執政日數皆名列日本政治的首位；日本內閣支持率若低於號稱「危險水域」的30%，則首相必須面對辭職的抉擇，然而第二次安倍政權的支持率皆維持在40%-50%；更甚，安倍內閣的支持率在安倍請辭後逆勢成長21%，足見日本民眾對安倍執政的正面評價。國內關於安倍政權的研究甚多，但對其在美日同盟框架下的「自主外交」與安保政策方面欠缺系統性的完整論述，同時與既有學術理論的結合度尚不足。\n\n 本研究意圖在結構現實主義現有基礎上加以發展，在外部平衡部分，論述既有之同盟理論，且試圖與美日同盟關係的發展進程結合，梳理日本在不同時期對美外交的成果，並分析安倍政權下日本加重其於不對稱同盟內份量的意圖；在內部平衡部分，則是先論述日本安保政策的演進歷程，並輔以分析安倍政權在確立官邸主導的態勢後，在「積極和平主義」的口號下擴大日本的國際地位的成果。\n\n 在理論探討部分建立後，本研究進一步檢視了安倍政權如何在美日同盟的框架下同時加強與美國的同盟關係並與中國、俄羅斯此二潛在敵國接近的歷程。在對中外交方面，安倍本意欲在安保政策上繼續追隨美國，但在經濟政策上摸索獨自的道路，而川普政權的出現更加快了日中戰術性和解的步伐；對俄外交方面，隨著普丁正式將「東方政策」定為基本國策，安倍也意欲在任內解決北方領土與締結和平條約等歷史問題，雙方在克里米亞危機後快速接近。\n\n 最後，本研究立基於日本官方文書以及學者觀點等資料，初步地評估安倍外交的成果，並發現安倍外交的確使日本在美日同盟下的自主性得以提升，因此即使日本在與中俄此二對於美日同盟來說具有潛在威脅的國家進行互動時仍能保有自主性；然而目前日本外交政策的產出依然被上述戰後憲法第九條與美日安保體系所約束。

The Second Abe Administration had been in power for 2,822 days consecutively since it came to power at the end of 2012, and 3,188 days if combined with the first term, made Shinzo Abe the longest in power Prime Minister in modern Japan. The Japanese government needs to consider resigning if the approval rate drops below 30 percent, but the Second Abe Administration kept its popularity in 40 to 50 percent. Moreover, the approval rate of the Abe Cabinet increased 21 percent after Abe announced to resign, which showed the generally positive attitude of Japanese people toward the cabinet. Among all the research on the Abe Administration, there is still a lack of complete research on its “independent diplomacy” and security policies under the U.S.-Japan security system.\n\n This paper aims to develop its contents based on structural realism. As for the external balancing,\nthis paper combined the history of the U.S.-Japan Alliance with the Alliance Theory, and analyze the Abe Administration’s intention to strengthen Japan’s status with the asymmetric alliance. As for the internal balancing, this paper first fully describes the history of Japan’s security policies, then analyze the Abe Administration’s achievements in increasing Japan’s importance in international affairs under the propaganda of “Proactive Contribution to Peace” after Abe established cabinet dominance system.\n\n This paper then reviews the progress of how the Abe Administration improved bilateral relations\nwith China and Russia respectively while maintaining the relation with the U.S. under the U.S.-Japan Alliance simultaneously. Abe intended to develop his own economic strategy toward China while keeping following the U.S. in respect of security policy. Furthermore, Japan and China intensify their cooperation after the Trump Administration showed up. As for his foreign policies toward Russia, Abe wanted to resolve the Northern Territories dispute and conclude a peace treaty with Russia after the Putin Administration set the “Pivot to the East” policy as an official policy. Japan deepens the bilateral relation with Russia after the Crimean crisis.\n\n In summary, this paper, based on the official documents and in-depth interview, concludes that the\nAbe Administration’s foreign policies encourage Japan’s autonomy under the U.S. Alliance. Therefore, Japan could still maintain its autonomy toward China and Russia, the two potential threats to the alliance. However, the current outcome of Japan’s foreign policy is still restricted by the framework formed by Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution and the U.S.-Japan security system.