EU-China Economic Relations in an Era of Uncertainty: Germany as an Example

Abstract

When US President Barack Obama inaugurated ＂Pivot to Asia＂ strategy in 2009, China proposed a High-speed railway (HSR) project to link Asia to Europe in response. Many people were puzzled why Beijing responded in this way. In fact, this could be relevant to the most popular Chinese historical fiction epic The Romance of Three Kingdoms, because this world has already been divided into three biggest economic blocs of the European Union (EU), the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA or USMCA nowadays) and the ASEAN plus Six at the time. After consolidating its leadership in the Asian bloc of ASEAN plus Six, China decided to take an active move to prepare for its future global leadership. Europe did not pay serious attention to China`s ambition until Chinese President Xi Jinping put forward the One Belt and One Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013. With the inauguration of Donald Trump presidency, the US foreign policy has been greatly affected by the atypical Trumpism, characterized by distinct political orientation, America first, and bilateralism.Given a great deal of uncertainties resulting from the Trumpism in the American foreign policy, in particular Sino-US trade-and-technology centered New Cold War, the EU is now facing a dual challenge of China`s BRI and America`s Trumpism. The purpose of this paper is to explore primarily Europe`s response to China`s proactive policy initiatives, in particular Germany`s approach in the capacity of the largest economy in Europe, de facto leader of the EU and its implications for future Asia-EU political and economic interactions. Thus, this paper begins with the definition of the Romance of Three Economic Blocs, then an analysis of Europe and Germany`s response to China`s BRI in an era of uncertainty, finally how and why the EU and Germany are likely to act in the post-pandemic era, their policy options and implications for Sino-EU relations.

進入21世紀後不到十年，世界經濟三分天下的局面已然成形。歐洲聯盟（EU）、北美自由貿易區（NAFTA）與東協加六（ASEAN plus Six）的亞洲經濟區塊三大經濟區塊不僅浮現，且主導的經濟體（德國、美國與中國）都已昭然若揭。中國因而順勢試圖搶在美國之前展開戰略佈局，先是在2009年提出連接亞歐的高鐵外交（HSR）倡議，繼而由習近平在2013年正式提出帶路倡議（BRI）。美國總統歐巴馬（Barack Obama）亦非省油的燈，同時推出TTP（跨太平洋夥伴協定, Trans-Pacific Partnership），TTIP（Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, 跨大西洋貿易及投資夥伴協議）以及美中BIT（雙邊投資協定）談判。起初EU對帶路倡議並不在意，但因2012年以來的中國與中東歐國家（Central and Eastern European Countries, CEEC）透過17+1峰會合作愈趨緊密，讓EU警覺中國崛起的衝擊，於2019年3月發表歐盟與中國的戰略外觀（EU-China: a Strategic Outlook）正式將中國界定為體系的對手（systemic rival）與經濟的競爭者（economic competitor）。而川普（Donald Trump）就任美國總統以來，歐美關係不斷出現矛盾與利益衝突，因而使EU面臨新挑戰。同時承受來自美中兩強前所未有的政經壓力，而歐盟與中國的經貿關係顯得愈加重要，EU與美國間的互信卻因安全問題與經貿摩擦陷入前所未有的低落。夾在美中兩強的EU究竟會如何因應崛起的中國？在安全的考量下仍然追隨美國加入華府對抗與制裁中國的陣營？抑或是追求獨立自主，把經濟利益放在第一呢？或是其所謂的戰略自主（strategic autonomy）？本文主旨在探討EU領頭羊德國對中國帶路倡議的態度與作法，因為EU在做抉擇時最關鍵的仍是德國的態度。更何況，2020年下半年德國正擔任EU輪值主席。德國總理梅克爾（Angela Merkel）主張與中國進行開誠佈公的對話，和中國就簽署投資協定（BIT）、推進環保以及在非洲開展歐中合作等重要議題舉行協商。2019年歐盟對中國出口中，德國就佔到42%。觀察的重點聚焦於EU是否會在經濟利益的考量下，搶在美國之前與中國在今年下半年簽署歐中雙邊投資協定，為歐商在中國取得比競爭對手美國更有利的待遇，使EU在全球三大經濟區塊競合中取得戰略的優勢。