中國大陸、墨西哥、日本與美國的貿易收支

Abstract

中國大陸、墨西哥、日本是美國貿易逆差主要三大來源國。在川普（Donald Trump）政府不但以關稅向中國大陸、墨西哥和日本施壓，迫使增加自美國的進口、減少對美國的出口，並以貨幣操縱者（currency manipulator）之名向中、日兩國施壓，以削減美國對中、墨、日三國貿易逆差背景下，本研究的目的是實證檢驗進口、出口、名目匯率和GDP等因素如何影響中美、墨美和日美的貿易收支。實證樣本為1980年至2018年的年度數據，研究方法包括單根檢定、Johansen共整合檢定、向量誤差修正模型。結果顯示，出口、名目匯率和美國實質GDP對中美貿易收支有正面影響，進口對中美貿易收支是負面影響。墨美貿易收支受到五個變量的顯著影響，但是名目匯率是負向影響。日美貿易收支受到五個變量的顯著影響，但是日本實質GDP、美國實質GDP對日美貿易收支影響並不與理論預期相符。根據實證結果，有以下結論可以避免或減少中國大陸、墨西哥、日本與美國的貿易爭端。（1）中國大陸、墨西哥以及日本可以向美國開放更多的國內市場，增加自美國進口，並更多元地開拓美國除外的國際市場，以減少對美國的出口。（2）人民幣和日元的升值將有助於減輕與美國的貿易順差。（3）美國應盡力使其產品在中國大陸、墨西哥以及日本市場上更具競爭力，以改善美國的貿易逆差。

Exports, imports, nominal exchange rates and disposable incomes are important factors affecting trade balances. Given that the major sources of U.S. trade deficits are related to China, Mexico and Japan, the purpose of this study is to examine empirically the impact of five variables, namely, export; import; nominal exchange rate; disposable income in China/Mexico/Japan and in the U.S. and the Sino-U.S., Mexico-U.S. and Japan-U.S. trade balances. The empirical samples were annual data from 1980 to 2018. The research methods included the unit root test and the Johansen cointegration test. Results showed that exports, nominal exchange rates and the real GDP of the U.S. had a significant positive impact on the Sino-U.S. trade balance, whereas imports had a negative impact on the Sino-U.S. trade balance. The Mexican-U.S. trade balance was significantly affected by these five variables, but the nominal exchange rate was not consistent with theoretical expectations. Although these five variables also significantly affected the Japan-U.S. trade balance, the impacts of the real GDP of Japan and the real GDP of the U.S. on this trade balance were not consistent with theoretical expectations. On the basis of the empirical results, the following tactics could avoid or reduce trade disputes with the U.S. if the Trump administration triggered international trade disputes in East Asia and North America. (1) China, Mexico and Japan could expand the number of domestic markets that to accommodate imports from the U.S. and search for additional international markets to reduce exports to the U.S. (2) The appreciation of the Renminbi and the Japanese yen could help alleviate trade surplus with the U.S., as China and Japan had been accused by President Trump of manipulating currencies in favour of their economies. (3) The U.S. should make its products more competitive in the Chinese, Mexican and Japanese markets to improve its trade deficit.