「中」俄戰略協作夥伴關係下的亞太安全--中華民國應有之作為

Abstract

隨著蘇聯的解體，冷戰時期的兩極格局已不復存在，大國之間的關係也進行了相對的調整。在新的國際格局中，「中」俄兩大國基於遏制北約的東擴和防止美日安保條約的圍堵，雙方除了極力倡導多極的國際體系外，並進一步建立「戰略協作夥伴關係」，冀由強化雙邊的多層面關係，來共同對抗美國的獨霸局面。「中」俄關係的持續加溫，特別是雙方軍事交流層面的不斷擴大，已使中共的軍事現代化進程向前邁進了一大步，近年來中共軍力的大幅提升已對亞太安全格局造成了莫大的衝擊，首當其衝的當屬台海安全問題，兩岸的軍力對比亦已逐漸失衡。面對這個巨大的轉變，台北方面宜採取更務實且富前瞻性的因應措施，首先，應透過各種國際多邊主義的途徑，尋求以集體的力量來確保台灣自身的安全；其次，加強台俄之間的非軍事交流，提升雙邊在經貿和科技領域的合作層次；第三，發展兩岸「信心建立措施」(CBMs)，以消除彼此的疑慮、降低雙方的敵意，從而避免因誤解而造成緊張對立或引發不必要的衝突；最後，在中共仍不放棄對台使用武力的前提下，台北應繼續維持一定的自衛力量，建立一支具有嚇阻作用的武力。

The bipolar system has been broken since the collapse of the USSR. Relations among great powers were adjusted accordingly. PRC and Russia initiated multipolar system and become \"strategic cooperation partners\" to resist the \"American hegemony\". Through military exchanges between the PRC and the Russia Federation, the modernization of PLA paced faster. The PRC`s military capability threatens the structure of Asia-Pacific security, especially to Taiwan Straits. In order to deal with this situation, Taipei should take more realistic actions. First, to protect Taiwan through international multilateralism and collective security system. Secondly, to strengthen the non-military exchanges between Taiwan and Russia. Third, to develop the CBMs between Taiwan and mainland China to remove the anxiety, reduce the enmity and avoid, unnecessary conflict from misunderstanding. Last, Taipei should keep self-defense capability for deterrence if PRC is still unwilling to give up military actions toward Taiwan.