不只是茶壺裡的風暴?初選分歧的大選效應

Abstract

政黨提名階段的黨內分歧對於大選有何影響？本研究認為兩者之間存在連動的關係，對大選的「選舉預期」將會影響政黨提名時的「黨內分歧」，而提名的「黨內分歧」連帶影響了大選結果。「選舉預期」指的是大選勝算機會的心理推估，乃是連結並同時影響初選黨內競爭以及大選黨際競爭的關鍵因素。選舉預期由兩個因素構成，包括「現任者優勢」對黨內競爭的嚇阻效果，以及選區「政黨優勢」對黨內競爭的磁吸效果，這兩種不同原因導致的黨內競爭，都對大選有著正向的影響。本研究分析第八、第九兩屆立委選舉之政黨提名與大選資料，發現兩大政黨在提名階段的黨內分歧受到不同因素影響，而對大選產生不同作用。對國民黨而言，現任者從初選到大選似乎並無明顯的「選舉預期」優勢，也沒有產生「嚇阻」黨內分歧的效果；反之，政黨的選區優勢則有著「選舉預期」優勢，既刺激了初選的黨內競爭，也提高大選的得票率。相對地，民進黨的現任者具有「選舉預期」優勢，有效嚇阻黨內競爭，較少面對黨內挑戰；而在大選階段，未被黨內挑戰的現任者（選舉預期優勢）相對於面對黨內挑戰的現任者（選舉預期劣勢），在得票上亦處於相對優勢。由本研究的理論推論與資料分析結果可見，政黨提名階段的黨內競爭，絕對不僅止於黨內的風暴，更是預示著大選競爭的諸多玄機密碼。

What is the impact of the primary division on the electoral outcome? This study argues that these two exist the linking causal relationship. The electoral prospect affects the primary division (intraparty competition), and the primary division affects the electoral outcomes. The electoral prospect, the psychological calculation on the winning prospect of the election, links and affects the primary division and the electoral outcome. And the electoral prospect was composed of two elements-the incumbency advantage deterring the primary division and the party stronghold magnetizing the primary division, combined together lead to positive electoral outcomes. Analyzing the primary and electoral data of the 8th and the 9th term legislative election, this study finds that the intraparty and interparty competition of the two major parties were affected by different factors in the primary and the final election. For the Kuomintang (KMT), the incumbents not having winning electoral prospect, neither deter the intraparty competition nor win over the interparty election. By contrast, the party strongholds with the winning electoral prospect increase the intraparty competition and lead to the electoral victory. For the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the incumbents with higher winning electoral prospect, deter the primary division and have a higher chance of winning the election compared to those incumbents with lower winning electoral prospect and facing primary divisions. Inferring from the theories and data analyses, the primary competition and division during the party nomination is not merely a storm in a teacup, it actually connotes a mysterious code for the electoral interparty competition.