大陸地區家計單位租買選擇與強迫儲蓄對於消費支出影響之估計

Abstract

本研究目的在探討中國大陸家計單位租買選擇對於食衣住行育樂等支出的影響，因為購屋支出占比很大，家計單位在考慮未來購屋需要的金額時，就會影響到現在的各項支出。本研究利用「中國家庭金融調查」的5,503筆樣本，將家計單位分成租屋、購屋有貸款及購屋無貸款三類家庭，首先估計這些家庭租買選擇的行為，接著再利用Heckman二階段估計模型，來估計租買選擇對於各項支出的影響。本研究估計結果顯示，做為調整項的inverse Mills ratio的估計係數非常顯著，而且加入租買選擇後得到影響各項支出的估計係數，與沒有考慮租買選擇下的估計係數有顯著的差異。

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of Chinese households` tenure choice on consumption expenditure, including food, clothes, housing, transportation, education, and leisure. Since housing expenditure usually counts for a large share of household expenditure, households have to consider their future expenditure on housing when they decide how to distribute their ordinary expenses. This study separates households` tenure choice into three types, namely, rental, owner-occupied with mortgage, and owner-occupied without mortgage. By applying a data set from the ＂Chinese Household Financial Survey (CHFS)＂ with a sample size of 5,503, this paper then estimates the size of the impact of important factors affecting tenure choice. Then, by applying the Heckman two-stage model, we estimate the impact of tenure choice on households` consumption expenditure. In addition to a significant coefficient for the inverse Mills ratio, the estimated results show that the estimated coefficients are quite different with or without tenure choice.